Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest North Carolina poll continues to find Kay Hagan in the lead, although the race has tightened slightly compared to a month ago. Hagan is at 42% to 38% for Thom Tillis with Libertarian Sean Haugh continuing to hold on to 8% of the vote. Haugh’s supporters say they would support Tillis 61/19 over Hagan if they had to choose between the two major party candidates- when you allocate them to their second choice Hagan leads by just one point at 43/42.
Tillis’ slightly improved position is a reflection of Republicans starting to close ranks a little bit more as the election approaches. Last month in the head to head with Hagan he led by 59 points with Republican voters at 72/13, now it’s a 71 points advantage at 79/8. And although his favorability numbers still remain very poor at a 28/48 spread, those are also up some from a month ago when they were 24/47. That’s also a reflection of improvement with his party base- he’s gone from a 39/29 spread with GOP voters up to 52/24.
Nevertheless the recent legislative session continues to be a weight on Tillis. One of the GOP’s main goals was to look more moderate on education by increasing teacher salaries, but for the most part those efforts have fallen flat with voters. Only 39% think a good faith effort was made to raise teacher pay this session, compared to 50% who think it was not. Asked to grade the General Assembly’s work on education this year 45% of voters give it a D or an F, compared to only 25% who give it an A or a B.
Hagan remains unpopular as well though. She has a 42% approval rating compared to 49% of voters who disapprove of her. Hagan’s approval numbers have tracked very closely with Barack Obama’s for months now- only 41% of voters are happy with the job he’s doing to 54% who disapprove.
“Although the North Carolina Senate race remains close, this does make six months in a row we’ve found Kay Hagan with a small lead,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The extent to which conservatives unhappy with Tillis will stick with Haugh moving forward is a big thing to keep an eye on.”
PPP surveyed 856 likely voters from August 14th to 17th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.4%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .42%
Disapprove…………. .49%
Not sure …………….. . 9%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sean Haugh?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q5 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat
Kay Hagan, Republican Thom Tillis, and
Libertarian Sean Haugh. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 42%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 38%
Sean Haugh……………………………………………. 8%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q6 Horse race, with Haugh allocated to whether
they would vote for Hagan or Tillis
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 43%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
General Assembly is doing?
Approve …………….. .21%
Disapprove…………. .57%
Not sure …………….. .22%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q9 What letter grade would you give the General
Assembly for its work on issues related to
education this session: an A, a B, a C, a D, or
an F?
A …………………………………………………………… 6%
B …………………………………………………………… 19%
C…………………………………………………………… 24%
D…………………………………………………………… 18%
F …………………………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q10 Do you support or oppose the budget passed
by the General Assembly and signed into law
by Gov. McCrory?
Support ………………………………………………….. 29%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q11 One provision of the new state budget ends the
practice of automatically paying for growth in
North Carolina’s public school enrollment. Do
you support or oppose the provision ending
this practice?
Support ………………………………………………….. 21%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q12 Do you think the General Assembly made a
good-faith effort to raise teacher pay in this
session, or not?
Think they did …………………………………………. 39%
Think they did not ……………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q13 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 56%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q14 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 5%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 27%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
Q20 Were you born in North Carolina, or did you
move here from somewhere else?
Born in NC……………………………………………… 56%
Born somewhere else ………………………………. 44%
Q21 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Q22 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 8%
336………………………………………………………… 17%
704………………………………………………………… 15%
828………………………………………………………… 14%
910………………………………………………………… 10%
919………………………………………………………… 16%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
