Raleigh, N.C. – Last November, Democrats lost both of New Hampshire’s congressional seats after gaining both in 2006, and it looks like it will be easier for them to retake one next fall than the other. But right now, their presumptive nominees trail the Republican incumbents at least narrowly in both. In the 1st, a repeat of 2010 would result in another win for Frank Guinta over Carol Shea-Porter, but by only seven points (48-41), rather than the 12 by which he prevailed then. In the 2nd, Charlie Bass retook by about one point the seat he lost to Paul Hodes in 2006, and were he to face off in a rematch with Ann McLane Kuster today, he would once again win by a single point, 43-42.
It is remarkable Kuster is not at least slightly ahead of Bass. Unlike Shea-Porter, she is considerably better liked than the incumbent in that district. Kuster’s 36-30 favorability rating is not overly impressive, but it puts her leagues above Bass’ 29-48 approval rating. By comparison, Shea-Porter is not very well-liked, at 40-48 to Guinta’s 39-38.
The explanation is that while independents like Kuster (32-33) more than Bass (29-41), they favor Bass for re-election by a 44-33 margin. In her district, independents do not like Shea-Porter (36-53), but do like the work Guinta is doing (43-35), and they support Guinta over the Democrat, 51-32. The two-party vote is polarized, with each candidate in both districts picking up 10-12% of the other party’s voters and earning 78-83% of their own party’s support. Slightly more Democrats than Republicans are undecided in both districts, but even more independents are, and their strong GOP lean means that if the undecideds are allocated proportionately, the Republicans’ leads will grow slightly, not shrink. Roughly a third of voters in each district claim to be independents.
“Democrats have a very good chance of knocking off Charlie Bass next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Frank Guinta is beatable too but finds himself in a stronger position than his colleague.”
PPP surveyed 299 New Hampshire 1st Congressional District voters, with a +/- 5.7% margin of error, and 363 2nd District voters, with a +/- 5.1% margin of error, from June 30th to July 5th. No interviews were conducted on July 3rd or 4th. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
New Hampshire 1st District Survey Results:
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Frank Guinta’s job
performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Carol Shea-Porter?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 If the candidates for Congress next year were
Republican Frank Guinta and Democrat Carol
Shea-Porter, who would you vote for?
Frank Guinta…………………………………………… 48%
Carol Shea-Porter……………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 24%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%
Q7 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 17%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
New Hampshire 2nd District Survey Results:
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Charlie Bass’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 29%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ann McLane Kuster?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q3 If the candidates for Congress next year were
Republican Charlie Bass and Democrat Ann
McLane Kuster, who would you vote for?
Charlie Bass …………………………………………… 43%
Ann McLane Kuster …………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 19%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 34%
Q7 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
