Raleigh, N.C. – With the GOP’s true believers, Senator Lindsey Graham has a reputation of being conciliatory toward the administration and working too often with Democrats and moderate Republicans. As such, while a 45% plurality of South Carolina Republican primary voters see his views as “about right,” an almost equal 42% view him as too liberal. Two-thirds of the state’s primary electorate label themselves conservative, and 53% of them see Graham as too liberal, while only 38% say “about right.”
It is hard to get good marks from your base if they see you as not standing up for what is right. When PPP last gauged his standing in June 2010, Graham had a 40-45 job approval rating with Palmetto State Republicans; those are only mediocre even among the electorate at large, and horrid for an intraparty rating. Graham now stands at 42-40, but that is still a stark contrast to junior colleague Jim DeMint’s 77-12. Graham sits at only 35-48 with conservatives, essentially unchanged from June’s 35-51.
Being unpopular within your party is no recipe for being assured re-nomination, and if his voters had the choice of “a more conservative challenger,” 52% would go for that candidate, with only 37% pledging for Graham. Last June, it was a slightly larger 57-32 deficit. Graham romps with moderates, 63-23, but that is flipped, 66-24 for the challenger, with conservatives.
Prior to his personal mess going public, ex-governor Mark Sanford would have been a natural choice to challenge Graham. But now a 46% plurality of even his own party would not vote for Sanford in a prospective future run. Despite all Graham’s problems, even he would beat Sanford, 52-34. Graham would not, however, be so lucky against Congressman Joe “You lie!” Wilson, who would edge Graham, 43-41. Roughly 60% of moderates favor Graham in either matchup, but while even conservatives go for him, 46-39, against Sanford, Wilson takes the rightmost voters, 52-31.
“Lindsey Graham should thank God his next race is not until 2014,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’d be in good shape in November, but at this rate, he’d be lucky to survive that far.”
PPP surveyed 559 South Carolina Republican primary voters from January 28th to 30th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Lindsey Graham’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q2 Do you think Lindsey Graham is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 42%
Too conservative……………………………………… 4%
About right ……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of the work
Mark Sanford did during his eight years as
Governor?
Approve …………………………………………………. 56%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q4 If Mark Sanford ran for political office again in
the future, would you definitely vote for him,
consider voting for him, or definitely not vote for
him?
Would definitely vote for him……………………… 14%
Would consider voting for him……………………. 39%
Would definitely not vote for him………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%
Q5 If the 2014 Republican primary for Senate was
between Lindsey Graham and a more
conservative challenger, who would you vote
for?
Lindsey Graham ……………………………………… 37%
More conservative challenger ……………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 If the 2014 Republican primary for Senate was
between Lindsey Graham and Mark Sanford,
who would you vote for?
Lindsey Graham ……………………………………… 52%
Mark Sanford ………………………………………….. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 If the 2014 Republican primary for Senate was
between Lindsey Graham and Joe Wilson, who
would you vote for?
Lindsey Graham ……………………………………… 41%
Joe Wilson ……………………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q8 Do you support or oppose the goals of the Tea
Party?
Support ………………………………………………….. 78%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q9 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 32%
No …………………………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q10 Do you think the Republican Party is too
conservative, too liberal, or about right?
Too conservative……………………………………… 10%
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 25%
About right ……………………………………………… 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Conservative…………………………………………… 67%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 0%
Republican……………………………………………… 81%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
