Raleigh, N.C. – Since PPP last polled the Missouri governor’s race a little over three months ago, things have little changed. Incumbent Jay Nixon is still one of the most popular governors in the country; likely Republican opponent, Lt. Governor Peter Kinder, is still about equally liked and disliked but still mostly unknown; and Nixon still leads Kinder by high single digits.
Nixon has a 47-31 approval-disapproval margin, up slightly from his 44-30 in the previous poll. That puts him in pretty enviable company for a Democrat in a slightly red state, and makes him not only the 13th most popular of 41 governors on which PPP has polled in the last 14 months, but the fourth best liked of chief executives on the ballot this cycle, after Louisiana’s Bobby Jindal, West Virginia’s Earl Ray Tomblin, and Delaware’s Jack Markell.. Nixon has improved a little within his own party, but his 60% approval is weaker than it ought to be. Luckily, almost a third of Republicans approve of his performance, as well as 48% of independents—and when it comes time to vote, Democrats come home to roost.
A majority of voters still are not familiar enough with Nixon’s number two, Kinder, to express an opinion. The rest split 25-24 just barely in his favor, essentially the same as his 23-22 last time. Unlike Nixon, Kinder polarizes the two parties and is barely seen positively by independents.
Head-to-head, Nixon has a 45-38 lead, down negligibly from his 47-39 in the previous poll. Both men have regressed slightly with their own parties, but Kinder has made up a few points of ground by closing the gap with independents from a 43-33 deficit to Nixon to only a 37-34 one. Nixon is still earning the support of 12% of Republicans, down from 15% last time, but still more than Kinder’s 7% of Democrats, which is up from 4%.
“Jay Nixon definitely appears to be headed for a tougher reelection battle than the one he had to win the office originally in 2008,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But he does start out favored.”
PPP surveyed 612 Missouri voters from March 3rd to 6th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jay
Nixon’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Peter Kinder?
Favorable ………….. 25%
Unfavorable……….. 24%
Not sure ……………. 51%
Q3 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Peter
Kinder, who would you vote for?
Jay Nixon……………………………………………….. 45%
Peter Kinder……………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q7 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
