Raleigh, N.C. – Republicans are headed for comfortable wins in Wisconsin’s races for both Senator and Governor. Ron Johnson leads Russ Feingold 53-44 in the US Senate race and Scott Walker leads by an identical margin against Tom Barrett.
There are two major factors leading to the GOP’s likely victory on Tuesday:
1) Wisconsin has one of the largest enthusiasm gaps of any state in the country. Although it appears Democrats will have turnout issues pretty much everywhere the problem is unusually severe in Wisconsin. Those saying they’re likely to vote this fall report having voted for Barack Obama by only 3 points in 2008. He actually won the state by 14 points. .
2) Barack Obama’s popularity in Wisconsin has declined at a rate much faster than the rest of the country and the state’s Democratic Governor is one of the most unpopular people holding his position anywhere in the country as well. Obama’s approval with likely voters is only 37%, with 54% of voters disapproving of him. Those bad numbers are partly a function of the state’s more conservative electorate this year but worrisome for the President is that only 70% of voters in the state who supported him in 2008 still approve of the job that he’s doing. Meanwhile 93% of McCain voters disapprove of his performance.
Jim Doyle’s numbers are even worse than Obama’s. Just 27% of voters are happy with him, while 62% say they disapprove. Tom Barrett has by most accounts run a strong campaign but it’s rare for a party to hold the Governor’s office when its incumbent is so unpopular.
“The top of the Republican ticket appears to be headed for surprisingly easy victories in Wisconsin,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters in the state are down on the Democratic politicians they elected in 2006 and 2008 so it’s not surprising to see they’re planning to head in a different direction with their picks this fall.”
PPP surveyed 1,372 likely Wisconsin voters from October 26th to 28th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Russ Feingold and Republican Ron Johnson.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 44%
Ron Johnson…………………………………………… 53%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Tom Barrett and Republican Scott Walker. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Tom Barrett …………………………………………….. 44%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 53%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Russ
Feingold’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Johnson?
Favorable ………….. 51%
Unfavorable……….. 35%
Not sure ……………. 14%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Barrett?
Favorable ………….. 41%
Unfavorable……….. 43%
Not sure ……………. 16%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Walker?
Favorable ………….. 47%
Unfavorable……….. 39%
Not sure ……………. 13%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Herb
Kohl’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jim
Doyle’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 27%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q11 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 40%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 37%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
African-American …………………………………….. 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Q16 Have you already cast your ballot for this
year’s election?
Yes………………………………………………………… 13%
No …………………………………………………………. 87%
