Raleigh, N.C. – Pennsylvania flirted a little bit with Democrats in the final weeks of this year’s election, making them think they might be able to pull off an upset in the Senate and/or Gubernatorial contests that had looked good as gone for most of the year. It looks like the GOP will in the end sweep those races though, if by smaller margins than they had shown in polling throughout much of 2010.
In the Senate race Pat Toomey leads Joe Sestak 51-46 and in the race for Governor Tom Corbett is up 52-45 on Dan Onorato. The story here is an inordinate number of Democrats unhappy with Barack Obama- and voting Republican because of it. The President’s approval rating within his own party is only 73% in Pennsylvania, with 21% of Democrats disapproving of him. Those Democrats unhappy with Obama are leaning strongly Republican, planning to vote for Toomey by a 68-23 margin and for Corbett by a 69-25 spread.
As is the case for him throughout the Midwest Obama’s very unpopular in Pennsylvania with 54% of voters disapproving of him to just 40% who think he’s doing a good job. Outgoing Governor Ed Rendell has also fallen strongly out of favor, posting only a 34% approval number while 53% of voters disapprove of him. As we saw in Wisconsin earlier this week the combination of an unpopular Democratic President and an unpopular Democratic Governor has the potential to be lethal for the party’s hopes of keeping some of these offices under their control.
Any thought that Democrats might have been better off with Arlen Specter as their nominee can be laid to rest. We asked respondents how they would have voted in a hypothetical match up between him and Toomey led 49-40, an even wider lead than the one he’s posting against Sestak.
“Joe Sestak and Dan Onorato each made impressive comebacks but it looks like they’ll end up falling short,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That Barack Obama is such a liability in the state only two years after taking it by double digits says a lot about how much the political climate has shifted and his ability to gain back support in places like Pennsylvania will be key for his 2012 prospects.”
PPP surveyed 772 likely Pennsylvania voters on October 30th and 31st. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Joe Sestak and Republican Pat Toomey. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Joe Sestak……………………………………………… 46%
Pat Toomey…………………………………………….. 51%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Sestak?
Favorable ………….. 39%
Unfavorable……….. 43%
Not sure ……………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat Toomey?
Favorable ………….. 45%
Unfavorable……….. 40%
Not sure ……………. 14%
Q4 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Tom Corbett and Democrat Dan Onorato. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Tom Corbett ……………………………………………. 52%
Dan Onorato …………………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Corbett?
Favorable ………….. 51%
Unfavorable……….. 32%
Not sure ……………. 17%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Onorato?
Favorable ………….. 37%
Unfavorable……….. 45%
Not sure ……………. 18%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Ed
Rendell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Arlen
Specter’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 29%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob
Casey’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate this fall had been
Democrat Arlen Specter and Republican Pat
Toomey, who would you have voted for?
Arlen Specter ………………………………………….. 40%
Pat Toomey…………………………………………….. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 3%
Q13 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 10%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Q18 Have you already cast your ballot for this
year’s election?
Yes………………………………………………………… 9%
No …………………………………………………………. 91%
