Raleigh, N.C. – Despite expanding their lead to 47-41 over Democrats in the generic Congressional ballot, only 29% of likely Ohio voters approve of the direction of the Republican Party, with 55% disapproving, suggesting that their preference for the GOP is simply a vote for change, not a vote of affirmation or a mandate.  Also supporting that notion: a 43% plurality finds the GOP to be too conservative, with only 29% seeing their views as “about right.” 

And in bad news for Minority Leader John Boehner, only 28% of his home-state voters want him to become Speaker if Republicans take back the U.S. House, with 44% preferring “someone else.”  GOP voters do support Boehner for Speaker, but only by a 54-15 margin.  Democrats, who would not vote for a Republican majority anyway, oppose him, 73-6, and independents, 41-22.

In June, Republicans were favored for Congress only 44-43 among registered voters, but the six-point shift in the partisan makeup of the likely electorate corresponds almost exactly with the shift in the generic ballot.  On top of that, Republicans are united around their party’s candidates 94-1, versus Democrats at 89-6.  Democrats have actually improved slightly among independents, though Republicans still lead 36-23.  There is considerable room for Democratic House candidates to make up ground by appealing to the 41% of unaffiliateds who are undecided and by boosting turnout among their voters.

While Republicans approve of the direction of their party, 59-20, independents disapprove, 61-13.  31% of Republicans and 20% of independents find the GOP too liberal, but 76% of Democrats and 43% of independents find it too conservative.

There has been no change in the race for Attorney General.  Mike DeWine leads Democrat Richard Cordray 44-40 after leading 44-41 in June.

PPP surveyed 475 likely Ohio voters from August 27^th to 29^th.  The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.5%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 The candidates for Attorney General are
Democrat Richard Cordray and Republican
Mike DeWine. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Richard Cordray………………………………………. 40%
Mike DeWine ………………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike DeWine?
Favorable……………. 35%
Unfavorable ………… 33%
Not sure ……………… 32%

Q3 Will you vote Democratic or Republican for US
House this fall?
Democratic……………………………………………… 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Boehner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%

Q5 If Republicans take control of Congress, would
you like John Boehner to be Speaker of the
House, or would you rather it was someone
else?
John Boehner…….. 28%
Someone else ……. 44%
Not sure ……………. 28%

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of the direction
of the Republican Party?
Approve…………….. 29%
Disapprove………… 55%
Not sure ……………. 17%

Q7 Do you think the Republican Party is too liberal,
too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 21%
Too conservative……………………………………… 43%
About right ……………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of LeBron James?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%

Q9 Do you consider yourself to be a Cleveland
Cavaliers fan?
Yes………………………………………………………… 37%
No …………………………………………………………. 63%

Q10 Do you think John Boehner spends too much,
not enough, or about the right amount of time
working on his tan?
Too much ……………………………………………….. 30%
Not enough …………………………………………….. 4%
About the right amount of time…………………… 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Boehner’s tan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%

Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 40%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%

Q16 If you are white, 1. If African-American, press
2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If older than
65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%