Raleigh, N.C. – With three U.S. House seats in play in Michigan, Democrats have to worry that statewide, Republicans have a 48-41 lead on the generic congressional ballot.  The difference: Republicans are 39% of the electorate to Democrats’ 36%, and independents, which make up 25% of the electorate, go for the GOP by a huge 44-24 margin, though 32% of them are still undecided, far more than the 4 or 5% of partisans in that camp.  The generic state legislative ballot follows a very similar pattern, with a 47-41 overall GOP edge.  Republicans currently have a 22-16 lead in the State Senate but a 66-43 deficit in the House.

Though they plan to vote for Republican candidates by a sizeable margin, Wolverine State voters do not have high hopes for the economy under a Republican Congress.  Barely more, 39%, think the economy will improve than the 38% who think it will get worse with a party switch.  23% think it will make no difference which party is in the majority next January.  Independents do think things will get better by a 42-25 margin, but only 67% of Republicans do, versus the 75% of Democrats who think things will decline.

This lack of optimism reflects the fact that, as nationally and in other states, Congressional Republicans, despite their leads in polls, are actually significantly less popular than their Democratic counterparts.  Democrats sport a dismal-enough 32-60 approval rating, but the GOP falls to 23-63.  The main culprit of the disparity is that the GOP gets only a 47-36 grade from its own base, while Democrats give their party’s leadership a very solid 73-13 mark.  Independents disapprove of the Democrats, 21-71, and the Republicans, 17-69, indicating that their 2:1 support for GOP candidates is simply a vote for what they consider the lesser of two evils, the party not in power. 

PPP surveyed 497 likely Michigan voters from September 17^th to 19^th.  The margin of error is +/-4.4%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion?
Support ………………………………………………….. 37%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 54%
No opinion………………………………………………. 8%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Carl
Levin’s job performance?
Approve ……………… 40%
Disapprove…………… 48%
Not sure ……………… 12%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Debbie Stabenow’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q5 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q6 If there was an election for the Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of the
Democrats in Congress?
Approve …………………………………………………. 32%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of the
Republicans in Congress?
Approve …………………………………………………. 23%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q9 Do you think the economy has gotten better,
worse, or stayed about the same since Barack
Obama became President?
Better …………………………………………………….. 25%
Worse ……………………………………………………. 53%
Stayed about the same…………………………….. 22%

Q10 If the Republican Party gains control of
Congress do you think the economy will get
better, worse, or stay about the same?
Will get better………………………………………….. 39%
Will get worse …………………………………………. 38%
Will stay about the same…………………………… 23%

Q11 Do you support or oppose the goals of the ‘Tea
Party’ movement?
Support ………………………………………………….. 41%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q12 Do you personally identify as a member of the
‘Tea Party’ movement?
Yes………………………………………………………… 14%
No …………………………………………………………. 71%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%