Raleigh, N.C. – New Hampshire Republicans look favored to win back the 2^nd Congressional district seat open due to Democrat Paul Hodes’ decision to seek a seat in the US Senate, and they appear to have a good chance of knocking off incumbent Carol Shea-Porter in the 1^st district as well.

In the 2^nd District former Representative Charlie Bass, looking to regain his old seat, leads 47-32 against Katrina Swett, the best known Democratic candidate.  He wins independent voters 49-26 against Swett and also earns 18% of the vote from Democrats while Swett earns just 5% from Republicans.

Although she is at this point the best known candidate Democrats may be better off in the long run if they nominate someone other than Swett.  29% of voters in the district have an unfavorable opinion of her compared to just 19% who view her positively.

Carol Shea-Porter is plagued by poor approval numbers, with 50% of her constituents saying they disapprove of her job performance to only 41% who give her good marks.  Matched up against Frank Guinta she trails 46-45.  Guinta is largely unknown with 52% of voters saying they have no opinion of him.  He leads thanks to a small advantage with independents.

“In the Democratic wave year of 2006 New Hampshire’s Republican house delegation was wiped out,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “2010 looks like it may be a GOP wave year, and the Democrats could face the same fate.”

PPP surveyed 647 1^st Congressional district voters and 827 2^nd Congressional district voters from April 17^th to 18^th.  The margin of error for the 1^st district survey is +/-3.9% and for the 2^nd district survey it’s +/-3.4%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 6%

Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion? If you support it, press 1. If you
oppose it, press 2. If you don’t have an opinion,
press 3.
Support ………………………………………………….. 42%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 52%
No Opinion……………………………………………… 6%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter’s job
performance? If you approve, press 1. If you
disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 9%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Frank Guinta? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 52%

Q5 If the candidates for Congress this fall were
Democrat Carol Shea-Porter and Republican
Frank Guinta, who would you vote for? If Carol
Shea-Porter, press 1. If Frank Guinta, press 2.
If you’re undecided, press 3.
Shea-Porter ……………………………………………. 45%
Guinta ……………………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q6 Who did you vote for President last year? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama, press
2. If someone else or you don’t remember,
press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 45%
Obama…………………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%

Q7 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative…………………………………………… 37%

Q8 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 32%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 38%

Q10 If you are white, press one now. If other, press
2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 52%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%

Q12
1st…………………………………………………………. 100%
2nd………………………………………………………… 0%