Raleigh, N.C. – In a sign of the extent to which the GOP is winning everywhere this year, Republican Paul LePage is primed to be the first candidate from his party elected Governor of Maine since 1990. LePage leads with 40% to 28% for independent Eliot Cutler and 24% for Democrat Libby Mitchell.
What’s most remarkable about LePage’s likely victory is that it comes despite the fact that a majority of Maine voters don’t like him. 51% of them have an unfavorable opinion of him to only 42% who see him in a positive light. But because he has a relatively unified conservative base while Democratic leaning voters are splitting almost evenly between Mitchell and Cutler he’s in a position to win without coming anywhere close to 50% of the vote.
LePage is winning Republicans, who because of the enthusiasm gap are actually the largest group of voters in Maine this year, by a 71-18 margin. Mitchell is pretty much out of contention at this point because she is barely taking even a majority of Democratic voters, holding a 51-30 advantage over Cutler. Cutler meanwhile has the advantage with independents at 40% to 31% for LePage and with Mitchell registering at only 17%.
Cutler is easily the most popular candidate in the race, with 46% of voters seeing him positively to only 33% with an unfavorable opinion. His problem is that a lot of people who like him aren’t planning to vote for him. Among voters with a favorable opinion of Cutler only 56% actually plan to vote for him while 21% are going for LePage and 18% plan to support Mitchell. To put it in comparison 87% of voters who like LePage are also planning to cast their ballots for him, which is why he’s beating Cutler by such a wide margin despite being less popular than him.
“Paul LePage looks like he’ll waltz into office because the Democratic vote is being split too evenly between Eliot Cutler and Libby Mitchell,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “One of the candidates would probably have to drop out of the race this weekend and endorse the other for either of them to have a chance of outpacing LePage whose Republican support seems pretty solid.”
PPP surveyed 1,812 likely Maine voters from October 26th to 28th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Libby Mitchell, Republican Paul LePage,
Independent Eliot Cutler, Independent Shawn
Moody, and Independent Kevin Scott. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Libby Mitchell ………………………………………….. 24%
Paul LePage …………………………………………… 40%
Eliot Cutler ……………………………………………… 28%
Shawn Moody …………………………………………. 4%
Kevin Scott……………………………………………… 1%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Libby Mitchell?
Favorable ………….. 31%
Unfavorable……….. 56%
Not sure ……………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul LePage?
Favorable ………….. 42%
Unfavorable……….. 51%
Not sure ……………. 7%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Eliot Cutler?
Favorable ………….. 46%
Unfavorable……….. 33%
Not sure ……………. 21%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Baldacci’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 29%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Susan Collins’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 53%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Olympia Snowe’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 56%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q10 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative…………………………………………… 36%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Q15 Have you already cast your ballot for this
year’s election?
Yes………………………………………………………… 19%
No …………………………………………………………. 81%
