Raleigh, N.C. – Newt Gingrich’s momentum in the Republican Presidential race is just continuing to grow as Herman Cain’s support fades away. Gingrich leads the GOP field in both Pennsylvania and Arizona.
In Pennsylvania Gingrich has 32% to 15% for Cain, 12% for Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, 9% for Ron Paul, 5% for Michele Bachmann, 3% for Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman, and 0% for Gary Johnson.
In Arizona Gingrich has 28% to 23% for Romney, 17% for Cain, 8% for Paul, 5% for Huntsman, 3% for Bachmann, Perry, and Santorum, and 0% for Gary Johnson.
Gingrich’s leads are a result of Cain’s support finally starting to really fall apart. For an 8 week period from the end of September through last week Cain was over 20% in every single poll we did at the state or national level. Over that period of time we also repeatedly found that Gingrich was the second choice of Cain voters. Now that Cain has slipped below that 20% threshold of support he had consistently held, Gingrich is gaining.
There’s reason to think Gingrich could get stronger before he gets weaker. In Pennsylvania he’s the second choice of 49% of Cain voters to 10% for Romney. And in Arizona he’s the second choice of 39% of Cain voters to 10% for Romney. If Cain keeps going down, Gingrich is likely to keep going up.
When we last polled Pennsylvania in July Romney was at 17%, so his 12% now actually represents a decline in support. And in Arizona his 23% now is basically identical to the 24% we found for him when we polled the state in May.
“Herman Cain’s support is finally collapsing and Newt Gingrich is proving to be the beneficiary,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Mitt Romney still isn’t showing any ability to benefit from the issues of his various opponents.”
PPP surveyed 400 Republican primary voters each in Arizona and Pennsylvania from November 17th to 20th. The margin of error for both surveys is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Pennsylvania Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Burns?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sam Rohrer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Smith?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 87%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Welch?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 89%
Q11 If the Republican candidates for Senate next
year were Tim Burns, Laureen Cummings,
Sam Rohrer, Marc Scaringi, Tom Smith, John
Vernon, and Steve Welch, who would you vote
for?
Tim Burns ………………………………………………. 15%
Laureen Cummings………………………………….. 2%
Sam Rohrer ……………………………………………. 25%
Marc Scaringi………………………………………….. 0%
Tom Smith………………………………………………. 3%
John Vernon……………………………………………. 1%
Steve Welch……………………………………………. 1%
Someone else…………………………………………. 8%
Undecided………………………………………………. 43%
Q12 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 5%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 15%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 32%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 0%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 12%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 12%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q13 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 38%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 62%
Q14 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 7%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 14%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 14%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 6%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 25%
Q15 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 31%
No …………………………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 41%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q18 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Arizona Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Wil Cardon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Flake?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q8 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
Wil Cardon, Jeff Flake, Bryan Hackbarth,
Douglas McKee, and Clair Van Steenwyk, who
would you vote for?
Wil Cardon……………………………………………… 7%
Jeff Flake ……………………………………………….. 53%
Bryan Hackbarth ……………………………………… 5%
Douglas McKee ………………………………………. 1%
Clair Van Steenwyk………………………………….. 2%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q9 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 3%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 17%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 28%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 5%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 0%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 23%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q10 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 42%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 58%
Q11 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 6%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 13%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 21%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 4%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 0%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 15%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 28%
Q12 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 31%
No …………………………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 4%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q15 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
