Raleigh, N.C. – When asked who they want to take on President Obama next year, Republican primary voters nationwide could not be less clear—the usual top four are in a statistical tie, each with less than 20% of the vote and just as many undecided. Mike Huckabee leads with 18%, followed by Mitt Romney’s 17%, Sarah Palin’s 16%, Newt Gingrich’s 14%, Ron Paul’s 9%, Tim Pawlenty’s 5%, Mitch Daniels’ 4%, and Haley Barbour’s 1%. 15% are undecided or favor someone unnamed. Last month, the candidate order was the same, and the proportions a similar 20-17-15-12-8-4-4.
But the longer these candidates hesitate to jump into the race, the more it appears a few of them may not run at all. Without Huckabee in the field, Romney edges Palin and Gingrich, 20-19-18, with Paul at 12% and the others further back. In the absence of Palin, Huckabee tops Gingrich and Romney, 22-20-18. With neither Palin nor Huckabee making a bid, Gingrich and Romney tie at 24%, with Paul at 12%. Palin’s voters go more heavily to Gingrich than to Romney.
69% of these voters say they regularly watch Fox News. A lot of hay has been made about the “Fox primary” influencing the outcome, since Palin, Gingrich, and Huckabee all work for the network. In the field with all four frontrunners, those three are tied for the lead with Fox viewers at 17-18%, with Romney at 15%, but with non-Fox viewers, Romney leads with 21%, followed by Huckabee’s 19%, Palin’s 12%, Paul’s 10%, and Gingrich back at 8%. In the other permutations, Romney wins the non-Fox viewers even more overwhelmingly, but places third or fourth or, at best, second with Fox viewers.
Worse for Romney, while his religion may not be an overt issue (65% say they would vote for a Mormon), almost three times as many people (45%) are willing to vote for a twice-divorcee (Gingrich) as someone like Romney who supported a health insurance mandate (17%).
“The Republican field continues to be devoid of a front runner,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “And even if Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin doesn’t run or both don’t run there still won’t be a clear front runner. It couldn’t be much more up for grabs.”
PPP surveyed 600 national Republican primary voters from March 10th to 13th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q6 Would you be willing to vote for someone
who’s been divorced three times for President
or not?
Willing to vote for someone who’s been
divorced 3 times……………………………………….45%
Not willing ………………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q7 Would you be willing to vote for someone
who’s a Mormon for President or not?
Willing to vote for Mormon ………………………… 65%
Not willing ………………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q8 Would you be willing to vote for someone who
supported a bill at the state level mandating
that voters have health insurance for
President?
Willing to vote for someone who supported
insurance mandate …………………………………..17%
Not willing ………………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q9 Do you think ACORN will steal the election for
Barack Obama next year or not?
Think ACORN will steal the election …………… 25%
Think they will not ……………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q10 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, Newt
Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who
would you vote for?
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 1%
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 4%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 14%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 18%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 15%
Q11 Given the same list of choices who would your
second choice be for President in 2012?
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 4%
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 4%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 14%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 19%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 12%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 9%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 27%
Q12 Let’s say Mike Huckabee decides not to run
and the candidates for President next year
were Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney. Who
would you vote for?
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 4%
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 5%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 19%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 12%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 20%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 15%
Q13 Let’s say Sarah Palin decides not to run and
the candidates for President next year were
Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich,
Mike Huckabee, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney. Who would you
vote for?
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 3%
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 4%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 20%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 22%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 14%
Q14 Let’s say neither Mike Huckabee nor Sarah
Palin runs for President and the candidates
next year were Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels,
Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum.
Who would you vote for?
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 5%
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 4%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 24%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 12%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 24%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 5%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 18%
Q15 Do you regularly watch Fox News or not?
Regularly watch Fox News ……………………….. 69%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 31%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 40%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
