Polls

Gingrich takes the lead in Florida

| Tom Jensen

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PrimaryGraphRaleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s first post-South Carolina poll in Florida finds Newt Gingrich with a small lead.  He’s at 38% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 13% for Rick Santorum, and 10% for Ron Paul.

Gingrich has gained 12 points since a PPP poll conducted in Florida a week ago. Romney has dropped 8 points. Paul and Santorum have pretty much remained in place. Their favorability numbers show similar trendlines. Gingrich’s has increased 8 points from +15 (51/36) to +23 (57/34). Meanwhile Romney’s has declined 13 points from +44 (68/24) to +31 (61/30).

Gingrich’s supporters are more committed than Romney’s. 78% of his voters say they’ll definitely vote for him compared to 73% for Romney, and among folks whose minds are completely made up he leads by 9 points at 45-36.

If Rick Santorum drops out between now and next Tuesday, Gingrich will be the beneficiary. His voters prefer Gingrich over Romney 50-23, and in a field where he’s no longer a candidate Newt’s lead expands to 43-36.

The good news for Romney is that has a lead banked. 16% of the folks we polled said they already voted, and they support him by a 43-40 margin.

He’s also more popular than Newt with a 61% favorability rating to Gingrich’s 57%. There are a significant number of voters who like Mitt but aren’t currently planning to vote for him- if Gingrich has an Iowa style implosion in the next 8 days there are plenty of folks who are going to be comfortable moving toward him.

“Newt Gingrich is the new Florida front runner,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “We’re seeing the same sort of stunning reversal there that we saw in South Carolina last week. Mitt Romney’s not showing the ability to close the deal.”

PPP surveyed 921 likely Republican primary voters on January 22nd and 23rd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.2%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%

Q2 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 38%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 33%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 13%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 6%

Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 71%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 29%

Q4 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 20%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 20%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 19%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 30%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q9 If the candidates for President were just Newt
Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney, who
would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich ………………………………………….. 43%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………….. 12%
Mitt Romney ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure……………………………………………………… 9%

Q10 Which of the Republican candidates do you
think has the best chance of defeating Barack
Obama?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 37%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 6%
Someone else/Not sure …………………………… 14%

Q11 Who do you think will win the Republican
nomination for President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 34%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 4%
Someone else/Not sure …………………………… 15%

Q12 Do you think Mitt Romney is too liberal, too
conservative, about right, or are you not sure?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 25%
Too conservative……………………………………… 5%
About right ……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure ………………………………………………… 28%

Q13 Do you think Newt Gingrich is too liberal, too
conservative, about right, or are you not sure?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 14%
Too conservative……………………………………… 9%
About right ……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure ………………………………………………… 25%

Q14 If Mitt Romney were to win the nomination,
would you enthusiastically support him, support
him with reservations, or not support him?
Would enthusiastically support Romney ……… 46%
Would support him with reservations ………….. 32%
Would not support him……………………………… 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q15 If Newt Gingrich were to win the nomination,
would you enthusiastically support him, support
him with reservations, or not support him?
Would enthusiastically support Gingrich ……… 50%
Would support him with reservations ………….. 23%
Would not support him……………………………… 15%
Not sure ………………………………………………… 13%

Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republican establishment?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure ………………………………………………… 24%

Q17 Would you be willing or unwilling to vote for a
candidate who had supported an individual
mandate for health care at the state level, or
are you not sure?
Willing ……………………………………………………. 23%
Unwilling ………………………………………………… 30%
Not sure ………………………………………………… 46%

Q18 Who do you think has stronger principles: Newt
Gingrich or Mitt Romney?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 31%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure ………………………………………………… 32%

Q19 Who do you think has stronger values: Newt
Gingrich or Mitt Romney?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 24%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure ………………………………………………… 32%

Q20 Are you more concerned with a candidate’s
principles or their values?
Principles ……………………………………………….. 30%
Values……………………………………………………. 22%
Both equally ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure ………………………………………………… 20%

Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%

Q22 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%

Q23 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 40%

Q24 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 25%
No …………………………………………………………. 64%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q25 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are ………………………………………………………… 44%
Are not …………………………………………………… 56%

Q26 Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot?
Yes………………………………………………………… 16%
No …………………………………………………………. 84%

Q27 If you are of Cuban heritage, press 1. If you are
Hispanic but not of Cuban heritage, press 2. If
white, press 3. If other, press 4.
Cuban …………………………………………………… 4%
Hispanic non Cuban…………………………………. 7%
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q28 Have you watched any of the Republican
Presidential candidate debates this year, or
not?
Have watched a debate …………………………… 84%
Have not ……………………………………………….. 16%

Q29 Do you consider yourself to be a Southerner or
not?
Yes………………………………………………………… 48%
No …………………………………………………………. 50%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 2%

Q30 Did you vote in the 2008 Florida Republican
primary?
Yes………………………………………………………… 84%
No …………………………………………………………. 11%
Don’t remember ……………………………………… 5%

Q31 In 2008, did you vote for John McCain, Mitt
Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Ron
Paul, or someone else?
John McCain…………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 15%
Rudy Giuliani ………………………………………….. 11%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 15%
Ron Paul ……………………………………………….. 4%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%

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