Raleigh, N.C. – Newt Gingrich has taken the lead in PPP’s national polling. He’s at 28% to 25% for Herman Cain and 18% for Mitt Romney. The rest of the Republican field is increasingly looking like a bunch of also rans: Rick Perry is at 6%, Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, and Gary Johnson and Rick Santorum each at 1%.
Compared to a month ago Gingrich is up 13 points, while Cain has dropped by 5 points and Romney has gone down by 4. Although a fair amount of skepticism remains about the recent allegations against Cain there is no doubt they are taking a toll on his image- his net favorability is down 25 points over the last month from +51 (66/15) to only +26 (57/31). What is perhaps a little more surprising is that Romney’s favorability is at a 6 month low in our polling too with only 48% of voters seeing him favorably to 39% with a negative opinion.
There’s reason to think that if Cain continues to fade, Gingrich will continue to gain. Among Cain’s supporters 73% have a favorable opinion of Gingrich to only 21% with a negative one. That compares to a 33/55 spread for Romney with Cain voters and a 32/53 one for Perry.
Cain’s continuing to benefit from doubts about whether the allegations against him are true- 54% of primary voters think they are ‘mostly false’ to only 24 who believe they are ‘mostly true.’ Painting himself as a victim of the media is proving to be a good strategy for Cain so far- 61% think it has been ‘mostly unfair’ to him compared to 26% who say it has been ‘mostly fair.’
“Newt Gingrich has been rising steadily over the last 2 months and now leads the Republican field nationally,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The top has proven to be a dangerous place in this GOP race though and we’ll see if he can sustain it for very long.”
PPP surveyed 576 Republican primary voters from November 10th to 13th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 5%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 25%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 28%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q8 Do you think allegations of sexual harassment
against Herman Cain that came out this week
are mostly true or false?
Mostly true ……………………………………………… 24%
Mostly false…………………………………………….. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q9 Is your opinion of Herman Cain now more
positive, more negative, or unchanged from
what it was before these allegations came out?
More positive ………………………………………….. 9%
More negative…………………………………………. 26%
Unchanged …………………………………………….. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q10 Do you think that the media’s treatment of
Herman Cain this week has been mostly fair or
unfair?
Mostly fair ………………………………………………. 26%
Mostly unfair …………………………………………… 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 Do you think that Herman Cain should stay in
the Presidential race, or do you think he should
drop out?
Should stay in the race …………………………….. 65%
Should drop out ………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q12 Who do you think is most responsible for the
allegations against Herman Cain coming to
light this week: the Obama campaign, one of
the other Republican campaigns, or the
media?
The Obama campaign ……………………………… 32%
One of the other Republican campaigns……… 10%
The media………………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q13 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 32%
No …………………………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 4%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 36%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
