Raleigh, N.C. – It’s been a bad week for Newt Gingrich in our early state Republican polling, but we still find him with a good sized lead nationally. He’s at 35% to 22% for Mitt Romney, 11% for Ron Paul, 7% for Michele Bachmann, 6% for Rick Perry, 4% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Jon Huntsman, and 1% for Gary Johnson.
On the surface that’s good news for Gingrich but looking under the hood it’s more bad news to some extent. We haven’t done a national poll in 5 weeks, too long ago to make a good comparison, but on 6 state polls we’ve conducted since Thanksgiving in Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico Newt has always had a lead of at least 19 points over Romney with the average of those polls coming out to a 27 point advantage at 42-15. His present national lead represents some serious shrinkage from that. He’s also seen a 13 point decline in his net favorability from our last national poll, going from +45 (68/23) to +32 (60/28).
The most interesting finding in this national poll might be that Romney’s net favorability has improved 15 points in the last month from just +9 (48/39) to now +24 (55/31). Republican voters are starting to warm up to him in a way that could pave his path to the nomination. Beyond that Romney is clearly next in line to take the national lead if Gingrich continues to falter. Not only is he 11 points clear of Paul, his closest competitor, but he’s the 2nd choice of 35% of Gingrich voters compared to 16% for Bachmann, 11% for Perry and Santorum, and only 6% for Paul. If Newt’s people keep jumping ship they’re likely to end up with Romney.
“The Republican Presidential contest finally seems to be moving in Mitt Romney’s direction,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “After shifting from one conservative alternative to another all year, it looks like GOP voters are finally moving toward doing what they were expected to do all along and that’s nominate Romney. There’s nobody else waiting in line at this point.”
PPP surveyed 658 likely Republican primary voters from December 16th to 18th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Rick
Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 35%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 22%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 4%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q7 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 38%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 62%
Q8 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 12%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 5%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 29%
Q9 If the Republican candidate field was down to
Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, and
Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 43%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 5%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 14%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 28%
No …………………………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 42%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
