Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama is not whalloping Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in Minnesota like he was when PPP last polled the state last May, a few weeks after Osama Bin Laden was killed. That was the high point of Obama’s standing last year. But in PPP’s latest survey of the Gopher State, the president still looks like he is set to win the state by a similar margin as in 2008, when he defeated John McCain by 10 points here.
In fact, Obama leads Romney by that same spread now (51-41), down five points from eight months ago (51-36). But no one else does any better. Gingrich lags by 15 (54-39), versus 18 (54-36). Rick Santorum and Ron Paul were not tested last time, and they trail by respective 12- (52-40) and 13-point margins (51-38).
Wednesday’s results showed the former speaker winning the caucus race by a 2:1 margin over Romney. But he finds the most disfavor among voters in the general election, with the worst favorability rating and the biggest deficit to Obama. Only 27% of Minnesotans see him positively, and 60% negatively. The others are all also very disliked personally, but not to the same extent. Santorum is the most popular, at 30-50, followed by Paul (29-53) and Romney (29-56). The president’s approval rating stands at 49-45, down a tick from 51-44 last May.
Gingrich is by far the most disliked by Democrats, who make up a narrow plurality of the electorate, and independents, who are almost a third of voters. So he lags the president by the most with independents (17 points) and Democrats (93). Obama leads Santorum by 13 with independents, Romney by nine, and Paul by six. Gingrich also cedes the second highest proportion of GOP voters to the president, at 11% to Paul’s 12%, Santorum’s 10%, and Romney’s 8%.
“This is another reminder of what a disastrous nominee Gingrich would be,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 1,236 Minnesota voters on January 21st and 22nd . The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 92%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
