Raleigh, N.C. – Newt Gingrich has dominant leads among Republican voters in both North Carolina and Colorado, and he and Mitt Romney are now the only two candidates with double-digit support. In fact, Gingrich is the first candidate outside his or her home state that PPP has ever found with an actual majority of the primary vote in any one state.
Gingrich tops Romney in the Tar Heel State, 51-14, with Michele Bachmann at 8%, Ron Paul at 7%, Rick Perry at 4%, Rick Santorum at 3%, Jon Huntsman at 1%, and Gary Johnson with no support.
Over in the Centennial State, Gingrich has a smaller but still 2:1 lead over Romney, 37-18, who himself leads Bachmann’s 9% by a 2:1 margin. That is followed by Paul’s 6%, Perry’s and Santorum’s 4%, Huntsman’s 3%, and Johnson’s 1%.
With the collapse and exit of Herman Cain, Gingrich has accomplished what PPP predicted for two months: he has taken virtually all of Cain’s support. Just last month in N.C., Gingrich was in second place at 22%. Now he is up 29 points, almost equal Cain’s leading 30% in the late October poll. Romney is also down five points and Perry six.
PPP last polled Colorado almost four months ago, at the height of the Bachmann surge and just before Perry’s entry into the race. Since then, Romney is down four points, Bachmann six, and Perry 17, with Gingrich having quadrupled his support from a fourth-place 9%. Cain was at 5%. The 28 points Gingrich has gained is not much less than the combined leeching of support by these four candidates.
“There’s no one left for conservatives to go to but Gingrich, and he’s proving stronger so far than any of the previous flavors of the month,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It looks like it’s down to him and Romney.”
PPP surveyed 568 usual North Carolina Republican primary voters and 500 usual Colorado GOP primary voters from December 1st to 4th. The margin of error for the N.C. survey is +/-4.1%, and +/-4.4% for the CO survey. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Colorado Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q6 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Rick
Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 9%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 37%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q7 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 34%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 66%
Q8 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 5%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 44%
Q9 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 32%
No …………………………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 5%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 41%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 35%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
North Carolina Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 73%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q6 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Rick
Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 8%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 51%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 0%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 14%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 37%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 63%
Q8 Who is your second choice for President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 8%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 0%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 3%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 46%
Q9 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 29%
No …………………………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 40%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
