Raleigh, N.C. – Newt Gingrich led Mitt Romney 34-28 in PPP’s South Carolina polling last night, the first of what will be three nights of tracking. Ron Paul at 15%, Rick Santorum at 14%, Rick Perry at 5%, and Buddy Roemer at 3% round out the field.
This is not a case of Romney imploding. His support has been pretty steady in the 28-30% range in our South Carolina polling so far. But Gingrich has risen from 23% to 34% over the last two weeks, benefiting from declining support for Santorum and also from undecided voters moving into his camp.
It’s clear that the debate Monday night did a lot to help Gingrich’s prospects in the state. 56% of voters say they watched it, and with those folks Gingrich’s lead over Romney is 43-27. Romney still has a 29-22 advantage on Gingrich with those who didn’t tune in.
Gingrich is starting to consolidate his support with some of the more conservative parts of the South Carolina electorate. He has a 50-18 advantage on Romney with Tea Party voters. He’s up 39-23 with those describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ And he even has a 37-20 advantage with evangelicals.
Rick Perry’s exit from the race shouldn’t make a huge difference. He was only polling at 5% and his supporters were evenly divided on their second choice with 26% each picking Gingrich and Romney.
Just for fun on this poll we tested the alternative universe in which Stephen Colbert had been allowed on the South Carolina ballot and he gets 8%, putting him in 5th place and ahead of Perry’s 6%.
“Newt Gingrich has all the momentum in South Carolina right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The big question now is whether ABC’s interview with his ex-wife will stop it.”
PPP surveyed 379 likely Republican primary voters on January 18th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt
Romney, Rick Santorum, and Buddy Roemer,
who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 34%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 15%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 28%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 14%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%
Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 80%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 20%
Q4 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 15%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 16%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 22%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 43%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 7%
Republican……………………………………………… 77%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%
Q14 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 28%
No …………………………………………………………. 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q15 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are ………………………………………………………… 52%
Are not …………………………………………………… 48%
Q16 Did you watch the debate on Monday night, or
not?
Watched the debate…………………………………. 56%
Did not …………………………………………………… 44%
Q17 Would you be more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Sarah Palin, or would it
not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 17%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 38%
Wouldn’t make a difference……………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q18 If the Republican candidates for President
were Stephen Colbert, Newt Gingrich, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum,
and Buddy Roemer, who would you vote for?
Stephen Colbert………………………………………. 8%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 31%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 13%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 26%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 13%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 3%
Q19 Region
Low Country……………………………………………. 31%
Midlands ………………………………………………… 35%
Upstate ………………………………………………….. 34%
Q20 Date of responses:
Wednesday…………………………………………….100%
Thursday………………………………………………… 0%
Friday…………………………………………………….. 0%
