Raleigh, N.C. – California’s presidential primary is on June 5th, late enough that it will probably simply anoint the eventual nominee. But if the election were held right now, Newt Gingrich would win a third of the vote in the state. Mitt Romney would follow with 23% to Herman Cain’s 22%, with everyone else far behind: Rick Perry at 6%, Ron Paul 5%, Michele Bachmann 3%, Gary Johnson 2%, and Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum at only 1%. Yesterday, PPP showed Gingrich in the lead nationally by three points over Cain and seven over Romney.
Cain’s supporters are more strongly committed to him than PPP is finding in most other states, especially after the sexual harassment allegations arose. 53% of his supporters say they will vote for him no matter what, similar to Romney’s 52% and Paul’s 55% and ahead of Gingrich’s 38%. Cain’s favorability rating with these voters (64-25) is second only to Gingrich’s (68-26), with Romney back at 55-33, not much better than Bachmann’s 51-31. Paul is the least liked, at 30-58, with Perry at 34-48.
Right now, only 17% of these voters believe the Cain allegations to be true, and 58% say they are mostly untrue. That same 17% believe the media has been treating him unfairly, and two-thirds unfairly. 70% think he should stay in the race.
But if Cain does continue to falter, it will be overwhelmingly Gingrich who benefits. 42% of Cain’s backers say Gingrich is their second choice, with Romney at only 12%. Indeed, Gingrich is also the favorite of 54% of Bachmann’s first-choicers and even a 27% plurality of Romney’s.
The lineup was much different then, but when PPP last polled the race in the Golden State in January, Gingrich was in second place at 18% to Romney’s 22%. So Gingrich was already strong here, but he has netted 14 points over Romney in the last 10 months, likely mostly in the last two.
PPP surveyed 316 usual California Republican primary voters from November 10th to 13th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 3%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 22%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 33%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 23%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 5%
Q8 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 45%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 55%
Q9 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 11%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 15%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 19%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 15%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 19%
Q10 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 31%
No …………………………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 Do you think allegations of sexual harassment
against Herman Cain that came out this week
are mostly true or false?
Mostly true ……………………………………………… 17%
Mostly false…………………………………………….. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q12 Is your opinion of Herman Cain now more
positive, more negative, or unchanged from
what it was before these allegations came out?
More positive ………………………………………….. 13%
More negative…………………………………………. 25%
Unchanged …………………………………………….. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%
Q13 Do you think that the media’s treatment of
Herman Cain this week has been mostly fair or
unfair?
Mostly fair ………………………………………………. 17%
Mostly unfair …………………………………………… 67%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q14 Do you think that Herman Cain should stay in
the Presidential race, or do you think he should
drop out?
He should stay in the race ………………………… 70%
He should drop out ………………………………….. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q15 Who do you think is most responsible for the
allegations against Herman Cain coming to
light this week: the Obama campaign, one of
the other Republican campaigns, or the
media?
The Obama campaign ……………………………… 31%
One of the other Republican campaigns……… 14%
The media………………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 0%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 44%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q18 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%