Polls

Gingrich doubles Romney’s support in Minnesota

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Newt Gingrich holds a commanding 18-point lead over Mitt Romney in the Minnesota caucuses.  Gingrich has more support than any two candidates combined – he garners 36% of the vote, with 18% going to Romney, 17% to Rick Santorum, 13% to Ron Paul, and 15% not sure.

Gingrich also receives the highest net favorability rating at +34 (59/25) followed by Santorum at +32 (56/24), then Romney at just +14 (50/36) and Ron Paul holds a negative favorability rating with -9 (36/45).

Both Gingrich (50-29) and Santorum (46-34) beat Romney in one on one matchups.

Gingrich has a large lead among self-described Tea Party voters, with 44% backing him, 18% backing Ron Paul, 14% supporting Santorum and just 12% going to Romney. Romney also loses Tea Party voters to Gingrich by 31 points in a one on one matchup, 58-27.

The good news for Romney is that the field remains fluid with just 37% of voters saying they are strongly committed to their candidate and 63% saying they could change their mind. Unfortunately for Romney, he comes in last of the 4 candidates among voters who are strongly committee to their candidate – with just 27% of his supporters saying they are strongly committed to him compared to 46% for Santorum and 39% each for Gingrich and Paul. So while the potential exists for voter loyalties to shift, Romney finds himself with the least loyal backers.

“Gingrich’s lead in Minnesota reflects his national momentum right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But with around 70% of voters either undecided or open to changing their minds things could change a lot over the next two weeks before the actual caucus.”

PPP surveyed 303 likely Republican caucus voters on January 21st and 22nd . The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q5 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 36%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 13%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 17%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 15%

Q6 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 37%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 63%

Q7 Who is your second choice for President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 21%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 37%

Q8 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .29%
Newt Gingrich …….. .50%
Not sure …………….. .21%

Q9 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .51%
Ron Paul ……………. .29%
Not sure …………….. .20%

Q10 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum,
who would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .34%
Rick Santorum……. .46%
Not sure …………….. .20%

Q11 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 32%
No …………………………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 43%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%

Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 2%
Republican……………………………………………… 75%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%

Q15 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1.If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%

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