Raleigh, N.C. – You can add Virginia to the list of states where Newt Gingrich has a huge lead in the Republican Presidential race. He’s at 41% there to 15% for Mitt Romney with no one else in double digits. Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry at 8%, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul at 6%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, and Gary Johnson at 1% round out the field.
This poll continues a trend PPP is finding of total dominance for Gingrich in the South. Last week he led a North Carolina poll by 37 points over Romney and two weeks ago PPP found him up by 30 points in Florida.
To have a lead this large requires broad support with the various different factions of the party, and Gingrich has it. For instance with Tea Party voters he leads Romney by 35 points, 46-11. But with non-Tea Party voters he’s winning by almost as much, a 27 point margin at 43-16. He is also first with every gender and age group.
There continues to be very little appetite for a Tea Party challenge to George Allen in the Republican Senate race. 65% of primary voters think he’s ideologically about ‘right’ and only 25% express support for a generic ‘more conservative’ alternative to him, compared to 53% think who he should be the party nominee.
Finally we took a very early look at the 2013 GOP primary for Governor and again find Ken Cuccinelli with a big early lead over Bill Bolling, 44-25. Both men are popular among Republican voters familiar with them but Cuccinelli is far better known with 73% of voters having an opinion about him to only 48% with one about Bolling.
“The Virginia Republican electorate is trending very conservative right now with its preference for Newt Gingrich, George Allen, and Ken Cuccinelli,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It will be interesting to see how viable those guys end up being in a general election.”
PPP surveyed 350 Republican primary voters from December 11th to 13th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Allen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jamie Radtke?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Bolling?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Cuccinelli?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q10 The announced Republican candidates for
Senate are George Allen, Tim Donner, E.W.
Jackson, David McCormick, and Jamie Radtke.
If the primary was today, who would you vote
for?
George Allen…………………………………………… 67%
Tim Donner …………………………………………….. 2%
E.W. Jackson………………………………………….. 3%
David McCormick…………………………………….. 2%
Jamie Radtke………………………………………….. 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q11 Do you think George Allen is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 11%
Too conservative……………………………………… 9%
About right ……………………………………………… 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 Generally speaking, would you prefer that the
Republican nominee for Senate next year was
George Allen or someone more conservative
than him?
George Allen…………………………………………… 53%
Someone more conservative …………………….. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor in 2013 were Bill
Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli, who would you vote
for?
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 25%
Ken Cuccinelli …………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q14 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Rick
Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 8%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 41%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 15%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 6%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 12%
Q15 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 43%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 57%
Q16 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 15%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 8%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 31%
Q17 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 33%
No …………………………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 43%
Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 3%
Republican……………………………………………… 72%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q21 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 38%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
