Raleigh, N.C. – Some polls in recent weeks have shown Kirsten Gillibrand, appointed replacement for Hillary Clinton in the Senate, falling into a statistical tie with Republican opponent Joe DioGuardi. But PPP’s first look at the race shows her in comfortable shape in the special election for the seat, topping him, 50-40. Meanwhile, Chuck Schumer, with a 57-35 job approval rating, is tied with Barbara Mikulski for the most popular of 60 senators PPP has polled in 2010, and the fourth most popular figure overall among senators and governors. His opponent, Jay Townsend, is not very well known, and as such, Schumer is leading him without a sweat, at 59-37.
With Democrats making up almost a majority of likely voters, DioGuardi would have to make serious inroads with them to win. Instead, the trend is in the opposite direction. Gillibrand is pulling a full 23% of Republicans to DioGuardi’s 19% of Democrats. He also only barely tops her with independents, at 44-43. Schumer actually loses independents by a 49-47 margin as well, but he has such a huge lead thanks to his 86% of Democrats and 28% of Republicans.
Gillibrand’s standing in this deep blue state, compared to Schumer’s and to President Obama’s huge win two years ago, seems weak. But considering the 11-point enthusiasm gap relative to the partisan breakdown of the 2008 electorate, she is not faring badly. If this were 2008, Gillibrand would be up, 53-38. A congressperson’s first election is also usually the toughest; Clinton won her first election in 2000 by only 12 points in a less Republican year, and was re-elected with two-thirds of the vote against token opposition six years later. No doubt hurting Gillibrand, however, is Obama’s barely positive 47-46 job performance mark in a state he won by over 25 points.
“Kirsten Gillibrand is not headed for a romp like Chuck Schumer is, but she is in fine shape for keeping her seat, and Democrats should not be worried about New York turning November 2nd into an election nightmare,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 592 likely New York voters from October 1st to 3rd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for one Senate seat are
Republican Joe DioGuardi and Democrat
Kirsten Gillibrand. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Joe DioGuardi…………………………………………. 40%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q2 The candidates for the other Senate seat are
Democrat Chuck Schumer and Republican Jay
Townsend. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Chuck Schumer ………………………………………. 59%
Jay Townsend…………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe DioGuardi?
Favorable ………….. 32%
Unfavorable……….. 24%
Not sure ……………. 44%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Kirsten Gillibrand’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Chuck Schumer’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 57%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jay Townsend?
Favorable ………….. 22%
Unfavorable……….. 16%
Not sure ……………. 62%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 40%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q9 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 27%
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative…………………………………………… 33%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q12 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 6%
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 23%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
