Raleigh, N.C. – It should come as no shock that Democrats want Rep. Gabrielle Giffords’ name on the ballot for U.S. Senate next year. She earns 46% of primary voters’ preferences, while former Attorney General Terry Goddard pulls 28%, and the other six possibilities tested—former Rep. Harry Mitchell, Rep. Ed Pastor, 2010 Senate nominee Rodney Glassman, Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon, 2010 Attorney General nominee Felecia Rotellini, and U.S. Attorney Dennis Burke—measure at only 2-5% apiece.
If Giffords is unable to or chooses not to make a run at Jon Kyl’s seat, Goddard would take the lion’s share of her support, with half of the vote. Mitchell places a distant second at 11%, with everyone else still in single digits, not much higher than in the first variation. Last week’s release showed Giffords as unsurprisingly the Democrats’ best bet if she makes a go at it. But Goddard would be the second strongest option, tying leading Republican contender Jeff Flake and beating everyone else handily.
But Flake is currently not Republicans’ top choice. Instead, Sarah Palin, who has talked of basing a presidential campaign in Arizona or running for this open seat, leads with 35%, just ahead of Flake’s 33%, with former Rep. J.D. Hayworth at 11%, and three others barely registering. But with only Flake and Hayworth going at it, Flake would prevail, 54-27. Flake would certainly be the GOP’s strongest standard-bearer, and Democrats would luck out with either Palin or particularly Hayworth as their opponent. The Democrats tested for the general beat both of these candidates by two to 26 points, while Flake trailed Giffords by seven, and led the other two by 12-14 points.
In the White House contest, Mitt Romney is holding steady at 24% from the January poll. Mike Huckabee has fallen from 19% to 12%, Newt Gingrich from 15% to 10%, and Palin from 15% to 12%, while Ron Paul is up from 5% to 12%, Michele Bachmann registers at 10%, Donald Trump at 8%, and Tim Pawlenty at 5%.
PPP surveyed 400 usual Arizona Republican primary voters, with a +/-4.9% margin of error, and 300 usual Democratic primary voters, with a +/-5.7% margin of error, from April 28th to May 1st. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Arizona Democratic Survey Results:
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gabrielle Giffords?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 81%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terry Goddard?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 71%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Gordon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ed Pastor?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q5 Given the choices of Dennis Burke, Gabrielle
Giffords, Rodney Glassman, Terry Goddard,
Phil Gordon, Harry Mitchell, Ed Pastor,and
Felicia Rotellini who would you most like to see
as the Democratic Senate candidate next
year?
Dennis Burke ………………………………………….. 2%
Gabrielle Giffords…………………………………….. 46%
Rodney Glassman …………………………………… 4%
Terry Goddard…………………………………………. 28%
Phil Gordon…………………………………………….. 2%
Harry Mitchell………………………………………….. 5%
Ed Pastor ……………………………………………….. 4%
Felecia Rotellini ………………………………………. 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 6%
Q6 If the choices for a Democratic US Senate
candidate next year were just Dennis Burke,
Rodney Glassman, Terry Goddard, Phil
Gordon, Harry Mitchell, Ed Pastor,and Felicia
Rotellini who would you most like to see as the
Democratic Senate candidate next year?
Dennis Burke ………………………………………….. 2%
Rodney Glassman …………………………………… 5%
Terry Goddard…………………………………………. 50%
Phil Gordon…………………………………………….. 8%
Harry Mitchell………………………………………….. 11%
Ed Pastor ……………………………………………….. 5%
Felecia Rotellini ………………………………………. 6%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 14%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 32%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 9%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 3%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q9 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 19%
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
Arizona Republican Survey Results:
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Flake?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of JD Hayworth?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q8 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States?
Yes………………………………………………………… 49%
No …………………………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q9 Given the choices of Jeff Flake, JD Hayworth,
Sarah Palin, Gary Pierce, Marilyn Quayle, and
Fife Symington who would you most like to see
as the Republican candidate for Senate next
year?
Jeff Flake ……………………………………………….. 33%
JD Hayworth …………………………………………… 11%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 35%
Gary Pierce…………………………………………….. 3%
Marilyn Quayle………………………………………… 2%
Fife Symington………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 13%
Q10 If the Republican primary for US Senate next
year was just between Jeff Flake and JD
Hayworth, who would you vote for?
Jeff Flake ……………………………………………….. 54%
JD Hayworth …………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q11 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich,
Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump
who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 10%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 12%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 12%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 12%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 24%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 8%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 8%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 22%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 34%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 35%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
