Gideon Continues to Lead Collins by 4

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PPP’s newest Maine poll finds a steady picture in the Senate race, with Sara Gideon leading Susan Collins by 4 points at 46-42. That’s almost identical to PPP’s last look at the contest in March when Gideon had the same four point advantage at 47-43.

Collins continues to be unpopular, with only 36% of voters approving of the job she’s doing to 55% who disapprove. Collins has been an electoral powerhouse over the years because of strong appeal beyond the Republican base but that’s over for her- she has just an 8% approval rating with Clinton voters now to 87% who disapprove of her. Even just over a year ago she still had 32% approval from Clinton voters but her impeachment vote was the end of that. It may turn out that by bringing impeachment forward Nancy Pelosi won Democrats control of the Senate because of the way Collins’ vote has effectively shut off the bipartisan appeal she had for years. Collins also notably can only tie Gideon among independent voters at 44/44, a segment of the electorate she has historically been dominant with.

Brett Kavanaugh’s vote on abortion last week probably isn’t doing Collins any favors either. 59% of Mainers consider themselves to be pro-choice to only 33% who consider themselves to be pro-life and the attention to her voting to put someone on the Supreme Court who will try to end legal abortion when she promised he wouldn’t isn’t helpful.

The biggest weight on Collins’ reelection chances is probably the continued unpopularity of Donald Trump though. Only 41% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 55% who disapprove. Maine ended up being one of the closest states in the country for President in 2016, with Hillary Clinton winning it by only three points. That’s not likely to be the case again this time around- Joe Biden leads Trump by 11 points at 53-42.

PPP interviewed 1,022 Maine voters on July 2nd and 3rd. The margin of error is +/-3.1% and the full results are here

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