Raleigh, N.C. – Little-known Herman Cain gets more traction with his home-state Repbulicans than one might expect for someone who is, at least for now, an afterthought among nationally known figures in the race to take on Barack Obama next year. 16% of usual GOP primary voters in Georgia prefer the Godfather’s Pizza magnate and radio host for the presidential nomination, putting him in third place behind Mike Huckabee’s 23% and another Georgian, Newt Gingrich’s 22%. Way behind are Sarah Palin (10%), Mitt Romney (8%), Michele Bachmann (4%), and Tim Pawlenty and Ron Paul (3% apiece). 11% are undecided or prefer someone unnamed.
Cain could pick up support in other states if the trends follow. 33% of these voters consider themselves very conservative, and Cain ties Huckabee for second at 19% with these voters behind Gingrich’s 21%. Among the 41% plurality which labels itself somewhat conservative, Huckabee has a larger 31-23 lead over Gingrich, with Cain at 15%.
Having two Georgia natives in the field likely hurts Gingrich. With Haley Barbour in Cain’s place, and Barbour pulling only 3% support, Gingrich jumps to 31%, with Huckabee essentially running in place at 24% and the others at basically the same position as before.
Romney has another poor showing in a Southern state, and it is his weakness with conservatives that, as ever, drags him down. He pulls 12% with moderates, but they make up only 19% of the electorate. That falls to 9% with the somewhat conservative and only 4%, behind even Bachmann’s 7%, with the very conservative.
“When you see Mike Huckabee beating Newt Gingrich even in Gingrich’s home state it shows you just how significant Huckabee’s decision about whether to run or not is going to be,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If Huckabee runs he has a very decent chance at running the table in the South. If he doesn’t the region will be wide open.”
PPP surveyed 400 usual Georgia Republican primary voters from March 31st to April 3rd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 75%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q6 If the Republican candidates for President next
year were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain,
Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin,
Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 4%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 16%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 22%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 23%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 10%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 3%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 8%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 11%
Q7 If you included Haley Barbour instead of
Herman Cain and the candidates were Michele
Bachmann, Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich,
Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you
vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 5%
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 31%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 24%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 10%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 8%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 11%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 41%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 33%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
