Raleigh, N.C. – Though he is unusually popular across party lines, and would therefore come closer than any other Republican to beating either Jeff Bingaman or Barack Obama, former Governor Gary Johnson is not currently his party’s favorite in PPP’s early test of the GOP Senate and presidential primaries in New Mexico.
In the race to take on Bingaman or his replacement on the Democratic ticket if he retires, former Congresswoman Heather Wilson has 35% to Johnson’s 27%, with Congressman Steve Pearce at 17%, Ninth Judicial District Attorney Matt Chandler and Secretary of State Dianna Duran at 6% apiece, Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez at 4%, and 6% favoring someone else or unsure. The two frontrunners both do about equally well with moderates and conservatives, but Pearce builds his relatively strong showing by getting 21% of the 70% conservative supermajority, bolstering his weak 7% with centrists.
Johnson could be a formidable general-election opponent for Democrats, because he is almost as well liked by Democrats as Republicans, and liked best by independents, but that means his intraparty support is particularly weak. While Pearce and Wilson have +53 favorability margins, Johnson posts only a +13, with 46% of conservatives expressing a positive opinion of him, versus 79% for Pearce and 74% for Wilson.
In the presidential field, Johnson also gets no favorite-son bounce, tying for fourth with Newt Gingrich at 13%, behind Sarah Palin’s 20%, Mike Huckabee’s 17%, and Mitt Romney’s 16%. This is the first Western state PPP has polled in which Romney has not led the primary contest—he is at least narrowly the favorite in Nevada, California, Colorado, and Arizona. Bringing up the rear are Tim Pawlenty’s 6%, Ron Paul’s 4%, and Mitch Daniels’ 3%, with 8% preferring an unnamed option or completely undecided. Romney has a bare lead with moderates over Palin and Johnson, but ties with Gingrich for third with conservatives, who favor Palin and Huckabee.
In the event Johnson does not enter the race, there is no clear beneficiary, not even fellow libertarian Paul, who is not hurt any more than the others by a Johnson candidacy. Palin still leads, now with 22% over Huckabee’s 18%, Romney’s 16%, Gingrich’s 15%, Pawlenty’s 7%, Paul’s 6%, and Daniels’ 3%, with 12% now undecided.
PPP surveyed 357 usual New Mexico Republican primary voters from February 4th to 6th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-5.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 67%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 69%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Pearce?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 69%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Wilson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 71%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 Given the choices of Matt Chandler, Dianna
Duran, Gary Johnson, Steve Pearce, John
Sanchez, and Heather Wilson who would you
most like to see as the Republican candidate
for Senate next year?
Matt Chandler …………………………………………. 6%
Dianna Duran………………………………………….. 6%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 27%
Steve Pearce ………………………………………….. 17%
John Sanchez …………………………………………. 4%
Heather Wilson ……………………………………….. 35%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 6%
Q9 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Gary Johnson, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 17%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 13%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 20%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 8%
Q10 If the Republican candidates for President next
year were just Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich,
Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you
vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 18%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 22%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 12%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Conservative…………………………………………… 70%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
