Raleigh, N.C. –
Another month, another “frontrunner.”
Throwing new Lt. Gov. Dan Forest into the mix for the first time, PPP
finds that he is Republicans’ preference for Kay Hagan’s opponent next
year. Last month, it was longtime Labor
Commissioner Cherie Berry, and before that, U.S. Rep. Virginia Foxx. But one thing remains clear: Hagan has large
early leads over her mostly unknown potential challengers. And she now looks stronger than before, moving
from 45-49% of the vote in last month’s poll to 49-52% now.
Forest has 18% of usual GOP primary voters’ support, over 13% for Foxx, 12%
for Berry, 10% for U.S. Rep. Renee Ellmers, 8% for Senate Pro Tem Phil Berger,
7% for U.S. Rep. Patrick McHenry, 4% for Greg Brannon, 2% for Speaker Thom
Tillis, and 1% for Terry Embler. The
real leader is the 24% who are not yet sure or favor someone else.
In February, Berry led with 18% over Foxx’s 16%, and the month before that,
Foxx was up with 21% over McHenry’s 15%.
Introducing the somewhat well-known Berry and then Forest has eaten into
support for the lesser-known far-right candidates, but Ellmers has remained at
10-11% in all three polls.
In the general election, Hagan now has leads of ten to 19 points over these
Republicans, improving almost four points on average from advantages of five to
15 points in February. She leads 49-39 over McHenry (45-40 last month), 50-40
over Forest, 49-37 over Foxx (48-38), 50-38 over Berry (46-38), 49-36 over
Ellmers (47-38), 50-36 over Tillis (46-38), 51-37 over Berger (49-38), 51-36
over Brannon (48-35), and 52-33 over Embler (48-33).
“The fact that we’ve found someone different leading the Republican Senate
field three months in a row shows how wide open the race is,” said Dean Debnam,
President of Public Policy Polling. “At any rate Kay Hagan has a sizable lead
over all of them right now.”
PPP surveyed 611 North
Carolina voters, including an oversample of 530 usual Republican primary
voters, from March 7th to 10th. The margin of error for
the overall survey is +/-4.0%, and +/-4.3% for the GOP portion. This poll was not
paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .42%
Disapprove…………. .39%
Not sure …………….. .19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Berger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cherie Berry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Renee Ellmers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terry Embler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Forest?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virginia Foxx?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Patrick McHenry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Phil
Berger, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 51%
Phil Berger ……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Cherie
Berry, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 50%
Cherie Berry……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Greg
Brannon, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 51%
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q14 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Renee
Ellmers, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 49%
Renee Ellmers ………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Terry
Embler, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 52%
Terry Embler …………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q16 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Dan
Forest, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 50%
Dan Forest ……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q17 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Virginia
Foxx, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 49%
Virginia Foxx …………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q18 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Patrick
McHenry, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 49%
Patrick McHenry ……………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q19 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom
Tillis, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 50%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q22 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q23 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 21%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q24 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q25 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 18%
336………………………………………………………… 19%
704………………………………………………………… 18%
828………………………………………………………… 11%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 22%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Berger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 63%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cherie Berry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Renee Ellmers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terry Embler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Forest?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virginia Foxx?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Patrick McHenry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 63%
Q10 (Asked only of Republican primary voters)
Given the choices of Phil Berger, Cherie Berry,
Greg Brannon, Renee Ellmers, Terry Embler,
Dan Forest, Virginia Foxx, Patrick McHenry,
and Thom Tillis, who would you most like to
see as the Republican candidate for Senate in
2014?
Phil Berger …………. . 8%
Cherie Berry……….. .12%
Greg Brannon …….. . 4%
Renee Ellmers ……. .10%
Terry Embler ………. . 1%
Dan Forest …………. .18%
Virginia Foxx ………. .13%
Patrick McHenry …. . 7%
Thom Tillis …………. . 2%
Someone else/Not
sure……………………24%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 33%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 43%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
Q14 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 14%
336………………………………………………………… 22%
704………………………………………………………… 20%
828………………………………………………………… 13%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 20%