Raleigh, N.C. – When PPP polled Iowa last month, President Obama was tied with 2008 caucus winner Mike Huckabee and four points ahead of second-place finisher Mitt Romney in a state he ended up winning over John McCain by almost ten points. But in the intervening weeks, with Huckabee bowing out of consideration, the president has moved into a much more comfortable position.
His current 49-40 lead over Romney (up from 45-41) is exactly the margin by which poll respondents report having voted for Obama over McCain, meaning these voters are just as ready to re-up the president as they were to give him his first term. Against everyone else, the president leads by larger margins than his victory over McCain, topping Sarah Palin, 55-35 (53-36 in April), and two candidates not tested previously: Tim Pawlenty, 49-37, and Herman Cain, 50-32. Obama leads by 19 to 38 points with independents, and takes 7-13% of the GOP vote while losing only 5-10% of his own party.
Obama’s advantage over Newt Gingrich has almost doubled in the wake of the former Speaker’s catastrophic debut as an official candidate, from 50-39 to 54-33. Independents have moved 25 points toward the president, from 47-34 to 60-22, and while Republicans have soured on Gingrich personally, from an already shabby 50-21 favorability rating to 38-39 now, they have not quite abandoned voting for him, reporting similar 74-10 numbers as last month’s 79-9.
The president’s job approval figures have moved six points in a little over a month, from 46-48 to 49-45. All of that improvement is because of a 23-point shift by independents from 41-50 to 52-38.
“Barack Obama’s poll numbers in Iowa are looking a lot better than they did 6 weeks ago and that’s symbolic of the improvement he’s seen nationally over that period of time,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 1,387 Iowa voters from May 27th to 30th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 10%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
