Raleigh, N.C.– The nature of Florida’s upcoming Senate race has changed dramatically since PPP last polled the state June, as Representative Connie Mack has surged to within 2 points of incumbent Bill Nelson. Aided by a sharp dip in Nelson’s job approval and a rise in his own name recognition, Mack has been able to close the 13 point gap from PPP’s last survey.
Nelson’s approval problem stems from a decline among all partisan identifications, with a net loss of 17 points from his own party. Only 50% of Democrats now approve of Nelson’s job performance, while Republicans have solidified in their opposition and independents have swung from a +4 net rating at 33% to 29% to -11 at 30% to 41%. Perhaps more striking is the Senator’s loss of support among women. In June, women approved of the incumbent by a score of 41% to 22%, and now disapprove by 34% to
32%.
Meanwhile, Mack has done little to bulk up his own numbers in the past couple of months. His net favorable is almost unchanged, coming in at -10 compared to -8 in June. His name recognition has ticked up from 53% to 60% and partisan voters are beginning to give more predictable opinions of the challenger, but the electorate’s opinion of Mack is stable.
Nelson has lost the independent vote to Mack, having gone from a 20 point advantage with that group to a 7 point deficit, with 38% of unaffiliated voters choosing the incumbent to 45% for Mack. Women have become an unexpected problem for the Nelson reelection effort as well, dropping from +25 for Nelson to +4.
Also concerning for the Nelson camp is his mediocre standing against his two lesser known Republican challengers Mike McCalister and Dave Weldon, at +5 and +7 respectively. Mack leads these opponents in the Republican primary by 33 points.
“The Florida Senate race is starting to look very competitive,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The stream of attack ads against Bill Nelson is taking a toll on his image.”
PPP surveyed 871 Florida voters, as well as an oversample of 500 usual Republican primary voters, from July 26th to 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3%, and +/-4.4% for the primary sample. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill
Nelson’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .35%
Disapprove…………. .40%
Not sure …………….. .26%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Connie Mack IV?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike McCalister?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Weldon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q5 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Connie
Mack IV, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 45%
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q6 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Mike
McCalister, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 45%
Mike McCalister ………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Dave
Weldon, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 46%
Dave Weldon ………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 20%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q11 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 15%
White …………………………………………………….. 69%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 32%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Connie Mack IV?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike McCalister?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Weldon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q4 The main Republican candidates for Senate
are Connie Mack IV, Mike McCalister, and
Dave Weldon. If the primary was today, who
would you vote for?
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 47%
Mike McCalister ………………………………………. 10%
Dave Weldon ………………………………………….. 14%
Someone Else ………………………………………… 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%
Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 20%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 36%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%
Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1.If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 37%
