Summary of Results
Raleigh, N.C. – If Jeb Bush would let them, Florida’s GOP faithful would crown him their Senate nominee in 2012 without a contest. When given an eight-candidate list of potential nominees, they give Bush almost three-quarters of the vote, and no one else gets more than 6%. Unfortunately for the party, he is unlikely to run, and in his absence, almost a third of respondents are undecided. In that case, their primary is likely to be a large and wide-open race, with the top four candidates bunched in the mid- to low teens.
Bush is the preference of 72% of the hardest-core Republican voters in the Sunshine State. The next closest option is outgoing Attorney General and Gubernatorial primary loser Bill McCollum at 6%, with George LeMieux, Connie Mack IV, U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, and state Rep. Jennifer Carroll each at 3%, Mike Haridopolos at 1%, and Adam Hasner at less than 1%. 10% are either not sure or prefer someone else.
With Bush eliminated from the field, though, any one of the lesser options could win at this point. A full 31% have no idea who they would support, and of the remaining voters, 15% choose Mack, 14% McCollum, 11% LeMieux, 10% Carroll, 9% Haridopolos, 7% Buchanan, and 3% Hasner. Considering the margin of error, almost all of them are statistically tied for the lead. Tuesday’s release showed that Haridopolos, Hasner, and even LeMieux and Mack are essentially unknowns statewide, and that is still the case with these most dedicated partisans who ought to know them best. So all of these possible nominees have plenty of time to make a name for themselves and fill the Bush- less void.
The race for president is similarly jumbled-up. Mike Huckabee barely edges Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, 23-21-18, with Sarah Palin at 13%, Ron Paul at 8%, Tim Pawlenty at 4%, Mitch Daniels at 2%, John Thune at 1%, and 10% undecided. Romney tops with moderates over Huckabee and Gingrich, 25-23-15, but they make up only a quarter of the votes. The 70% who call themselves conservative break down very similarly to the overall electorate.
“Jeb Bush is currently the only Republican who can beat Bill Nelson, and Republicans want to give him that chance,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 400 usual Florida Republican primary voters from December 17th to 20th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or (919) 880-4888.
Quesitons about the poll? Contact Tom Jensen at (919) 774-6312
Florida Survey Results
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable ……………………………………………….. 67%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeb Bush?
Favorable ……………………………………………….. 83%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure…………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mike Haridopolos?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Adam Hasner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 2%
Unfavorable……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 89%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Connie Mack IV?
Favorable ……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q9 Between Vern Buchanan, Jeb Bush, Jennifer Carroll, Mike Haridopolos, Adam Hasner, George LeMieux, Connie Mack IV, and Bill McCollum who would you most like to see as the Republican Senate nominee in 2012?
Vern Buchanan ………………………………………..3%
Jeb Bush…………………………………………………72%
Jennifer Carroll ………………………………………..3%
Mike Haridopolos …………………………………….. 1%
Adam Hasner …………………………………………..00%
George LeMieux ……………………………………… 3%
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 3%
Bill McCollum ………………………………………….. 6%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q10 If your choices as a Republican Senate candidate for 2012 were just Vern Buchanan, Jennifer Carroll, Mike Haridopolos, Adam Hasner, George LeMieux, Connie Mack IV, and Bill McCollum who would you most like to see as the Republican Senate nominee in 2012?
VernBuchanan……………………………………….. 7%
Jennifer Carroll ……………………………………….. 10%
Mike Haridopolos…………………………………….. 9%
Adam Hasner ………………………………………….. 3%
George LeMieux ……………………………………… 11%
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 15%
Bill McCollum ………………………………………….. 14%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 31%
Q11 If the Republican candidates for President in 2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who would you vote for?
MitchDaniels………………………………………….. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 23%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 13%
Ron Paul………………………………………………… 8
TimPawlenty………………………………………….. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 21%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 1%
Someone else/Undecided………………………….10%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal, moderate, or conservative?
Liberal……………………………………………………. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Conservative …………………………………………… 70%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48% Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q14 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 7%
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
African-American…………………………………….. 1%
Other……………………………………………………… 2%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65 ………………………………………….. 36%
Full results (including crossover tabs) and press release: PPP_Release_National_1129.pdf
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