Raleigh, N.C. – Jeff Flake looks like the overwhelming favorite to take the Republican nomination for Jon Kyl’s Arizona Senate seat, and he continues to hold a double-digit advantage over Democratic pick Richard Carmona.
In the primary, Flake leads conservative challenger Wil Cardon by a 42-20 margin, with three others combining for 6%, and a third undecided with almost four months to go. That is still a daunting gap to close for the largely self-funded Cardon, but he has managed to make up considerable ground since PPP last polled the race in February. Then, Flake had a 56-7 lead. But also as then, Flake is still stronger with the most conservative voters than he is with the center-right or moderates, potentially stymying the reason for Cardon’s candidacy.
In the general, Flake leads Carmona 48-35, and Cardon has a much smaller 40-37 edge over the Democrat. Three months ago, those match-ups were a very similar 46-35 and 37-33, respectively.
While Carmona has raised his profile slightly over the last few months, he remains still mostly unknown. Only 34% of voters have an opinion on Carmona personally, and they fall at 19% favorable and 15% unfavorable, up a bit from 27% (13-14) in the last survey. Flake, however, is recognized by 60% (33-27).
The positive flip side to that is that voters who know both Carmona and Flake strongly favor Carmona, suggesting that as Carmona continues to campaign and become a known commodity to the rest of the electorate, he can close the gap. The improvement in his name identification so far has been entirely with Democrats, however.
“The big story in Arizona is Wil Cardon chopping more than 20 points off Jeff Flake’s lead in the primary,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This race is starting to show some of the upset potential that has characterized many Republican Senate primaries over the last two cycles.”
PPP surveyed 500 Arizona voters, including an oversample of 421 usual Republican primary voters, between May 17th and 20th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-4.4%, and +/-4.8% for the primary portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Wil Cardon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Richard Carmona?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Flake?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q4 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Republican Wil Cardon and Democrat Richard
Carmona, who would you vote for?
Wil Cardon……………………………………………… 40%
Richard Carmona…………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%
Q5 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Republican Jeff Flake and Democrat Richard
Carmona, who would you vote for?
Jeff Flake ……………………………………………….. 48%
Richard Carmona…………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 24%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 31%
Republican……………………………………………… 46%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 18%
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Wil Cardon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Flake?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q3 The Republican candidates for Senate are Wil
Cardon, Jeff Flake, Bryan Hackbarth, John
Lyon, and Clair Van Steenwyk. If the primary
was today, who would you vote for?
Wil Cardon……………………………………………… 20%
Jeff Flake ……………………………………………….. 42%
Bryan Hackbarth ……………………………………… 3%
John Lyon ………………………………………………. 1%
Clair Van Steenwyk………………………………….. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 33%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q6 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
