Raleigh, N.C. – Rep. Jeff Flake has been in Congress for almost 11 years and in the race to replace Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl for nine months, so right now, he has a considerable leg up on name recognition over both Democrats: newly announced former Surgeon General Richard Carmona and former state party chair Don Bivens. But Flake leads Carmona by only four points (40-36) and Bivens by ten (42-32) in what could be the most promising Arizona Senate election for Democrats since one of them last won in 1988.
Flake has improved his favorability mark since PPP last polled the race in May, before either Democrat was in the race. Then, 29% saw him positively and 30% negatively. Now, that is 33-27. 41% had no opinion in both surveys. By comparison, 71% cannot say how they feel about Carmona, and 81% of Bivens. But even though Flake is a more familiar face at this point than either of his potential Democratic opponents, still about as many Republican voters are undecided as Democrats, so Democrats cannot just hope that as their party coalesces around a nominee things will improve. Flake’s own party is likely to do the same.
It will be difficult for Democrats to win this seat if their party is not united. 14% of Democrats see Flake positively, and he gets 12% of them versus Carmona and 14% against Bivens. Independents will also be key. They are over a fifth of the electorate, and 44% of them are undecided in either matchup, with Flake currently holding leads of three points over Carmona and ten over Bivens. Though three-quarters of them cannot form an opinion on Carmona personally, Republicans actually see him just narrowly favorably (13-12), and 10% of them say they would prefer him to Flake, versus only 7% who say that of Bivens.
“Democrats appear to start out with a real chance in this race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “In a cycle where the party has limited opportunities on offense this is an alluring race.”
PPP surveyed 500 Arizona voters from November 17th to 20th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Don Bivens?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Wil Cardon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Richard Carmona?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Flake?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q5 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Don Bivens and Republican Wil
Cardon, who would you vote for?
Don Bivens …………………………………………….. 27%
Wil Cardon……………………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 37%
Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Don Bivens and Republican Jeff
Flake, who would you vote for?
Don Bivens …………………………………………….. 32%
Jeff Flake ……………………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 26%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Richard Carmona and Republican
Wil Cardon, who would you vote for?
Richard Carmona…………………………………….. 33%
Wil Cardon……………………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 32%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Richard Carmona and Republican
Jeff Flake, who would you vote for?
Richard Carmona…………………………………….. 36%
Jeff Flake ……………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 41%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q12 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 16%
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 8%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
