Raleigh, N.C. – Florida’s Bill Nelson is in a little better shape now than in PPP’s last gauge of his 2012 re-election race last December, leading six potential opponents by anywhere from 13 to 19 points.
For someone who has been in office for ten years, Bill Nelson has a remarkably low profile. As yesterday’s release showed, newly elected junior colleague Marco Rubio is slightly better known already, and better liked. 28% of Floridians have no opinion about Nelson’s job performance, and as in PPP polls throughout 2010, the rest split pretty evenly, 38% approving and 34% disapproving. He is not hated by Republicans, but he is not loved by his own party either. Independents split down the middle.
But luckily for Nelson, none of the potential opponents tested against him are any better known or more popular; all of them have at least slightly net negative favorability ratings. 83% have no opinion of Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales, 77% of state Rep. Adam Hasner, 69% of former Sen. George LeMieux, 68% of state Sen. Mike Haridopolos, 65% of TV talk show host and former Rep. Joe Scarborough, and 57% of Rep. Connie Mack IV.
Unlikely candidate Scarborough comes closest to Nelson, lagging 45-32, followed by LeMieux (48-33), Hasner (48-32), Haridopolos (50-34), and Wales (47-28). Mack announced he will not run after the poll was in the field. He would have fared little better than anyone else, trailing Nelson 47-34. Two things Nelson has going for him is that he is winning 11-19% of Republican votes and losing only 4-8% of Democrats, while also holding leads with independents of ten to 24 points. Scarborough and Wales were not tested in December, but the others were down only eight to 16 points overall then, versus 13-16 now.
“Bill Nelson’s approval numbers make him look vulnerable but they might be a little deceiving,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Democrats don’t love him but they would still vote for him in a general election and his better than average support across party lines from Republicans means his eventual opponent will be starting from behind.”
PPP surveyed 500 Florida voters from March 24th to 27th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill
Nelson’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Haridopolos?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Adam Hasner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George LeMieux?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Connie Mack IV?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Scarborough?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jimmy Wales?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Mike
Haridopolos, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 50%
Mike Haridopolos …………………………………….. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Adam
Hasner, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 48%
Adam Hasner………………………………………….. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican George
LeMieux, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 48%
George LeMieux ……………………………………… 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Connie
Mack IV, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 47%
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Joe
Scarborough, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 45%
Joe Scarborough …………………………………….. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Jimmy
Wales, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 47%
Jimmy Wales ………………………………………….. 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q17 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
