Raleigh, N.C. – If she were committed not only to ousting Barbara Boxer but to serving in the U.S. Senate, 2010 loser Carly Fiorina would start out with a lead in a crowded field of Republicans hoping to mount a quixotic challenge to incumbent Dianne Feinstein next year. PPP’s release last week showed Feinstein holding a lead of at least 14 points against any well-known Republican, including Fiorina, who would trail by 20.
Fiorina has a decent but within-the-margin-of-error lead in the GOP primary, with 23% over Darrell Issa and Meg Whitman, each at 16%, with Tom Campbell right there at 15%. 14% favor someone else or are undecided, so the race is wide open.
The rest are in single digits. Three of them—Steve Poizner (5%), Kevin McCarthy (4%), and Mary Bono Mack (2%)—likely receive little support because of low statewide name recognition. 52% have not heard of Poizner, and though their favorability ratings were not tested, the figures are likely even higher for Mack and McCarthy. But the other one with paltry support (6%), Arnold Schwarzenegger, is the best known of all, yet has by far the worst favorability rating (23-66), about what he shows with all voters. All the others are in positive territory with their partisan base. Issa and Campbell do surprisingly well, since they are about equally as well-known as Poizner.
In the presidential race, Mitt Romney continues to show strength in the West and in blue states. He leads California’s primary contest nominally, but the top four are all statistically tied. Romney has 22% over rare second-place finisher Newt Gingrich’s 18%, Sarah Palin’s 16%, and Mike Huckabee’s 15%. 12% prefer an unnamed candidate or are undecided. Ron Paul has a somewhat unusually high 10%, with Tim Pawlenty (3%), Mitch Daniels (2%), and John Thune (1%) about where they usually are.
As in neighboring Arizona, Romney leads with both moderates and the supermajority conservatives, and Palin is in second at 20% with conservatives, but has only 9% with moderates. Saturday’s release showed that while none of the candidates would have hope against President Obama, fourth-place Huckabee would lag by the least, 15 points, followed by Romney’s 20-point deficit.
PPP surveyed 403 usual California Republican primary voters from January 28th to 30th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Campbell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Carly Fiorina?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Darrell Issa?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Poizner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Arnold Schwarzenegger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 66%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Meg Whitman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q11 Given the choices of Tom Campbell, Carly
Fiorina, Darrell Issa, Mary Bono Mack, Kevin
McCarthy, Steve Poizner, Arnold
Schwarzenegger, and Meg Whitman who
would you most like to see as the Republican
candidate for Senate next year?
Tom Campbell…………………………………………. 15%
Carly Fiorina …………………………………………… 23%
Darrell Issa……………………………………………… 16%
Mary Bono Mack……………………………………… 2%
Kevin McCarthy ………………………………………. 4%
Steve Poizner …………………………………………. 5%
Arnold Schwarzenegger……………………………. 6%
Meg Whitman………………………………………….. 16%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 14%
Q12 If the Republican candidates for President next
year were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 15%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 22%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 1%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 12%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Conservative…………………………………………… 64%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 4%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
