Raleigh, N.C. – Contrary to other recent polls, PPP’s latest look at senior Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s standing in California does not suggest she is at all weakened. Her approval rating is 51%, with 38% disapproving, actually a slight uptick from when PPP last polled the state in January. Then, her approval spread was 50-39. More Republicans (19%) approve than Democrats (11%) disapprove. That level of intraparty disfavor is down from 19% in January, though independents have flipped from 46-35 to 37-46.
That net approval mark puts Feinstein just outside the upper third of the 87 senators on which PPP has polled. That, combined with the state’s Democratic leanings and a relatively weak Republican bench, means that none of Feinstein’s potential challengers next year, even those with the biggest statewide name identification, can cut into her eleven-point net approval margin. Tom Campbell trails by 15 points (53-38); Steve Poizner by 19 (54-35); Carly Fiorina by 20 (56-36), twice her loss to Barbara Boxer last fall; Rep. Devin Nunes by 24 (55-31); and birther Orly Taitz by 27 (56-29).
Democrats are the plurality of voters in California, so Feinstein has a built-in advantage, but she adds to it by taking 12-15% of the GOP vote while losing only 5-8% of her party. On top of that, her deficit with independents is only three points to Fiorina and two to Campbell, and she actually beats Poizner (by two), Nunes (eight), and Taitz (12) with these voters.
Of the five Republicans, Campbell is the only one with a net positive favorability rating, and barely (+2). That far outclasses Nunes’ -11, Poizner’s -12, Taitz’s -15, and Fiorina’s -16.
“Dianne Feinstein isn’t going to be on anyone’s target list next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “She’s popular and the Republicans don’t really have anyone to run against her even if she wasn’t.”
PPP surveyed 500 California voters from November 10th to 13th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Dianne Feinstein’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .51%
Disapprove…………. .38%
Not sure …………….. .11%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Campbell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Carly Fiorina?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Devin Nunes?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Poizner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Orly Taitz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Dianne Feinstein and Republican
Tom Campbell, who would you vote for?
Dianne Feinstein……………………………………… 53%
Tom Campbell…………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Dianne Feinstein and Republican
Carly Fiorina, who would you vote for?
Dianne Feinstein……………………………………… 56%
Carly Fiorina …………………………………………… 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Dianne Feinstein and Republican
Devin Nunes, who would you vote for?
Dianne Feinstein……………………………………… 55%
Devin Nunes …………………………………………… 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Dianne Feinstein and Republican
Steve Poizner, who would you vote for?
Dianne Feinstein……………………………………… 54%
Steve Poizner …………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Dianne Feinstein and Republican
Orly Taitz, who would you vote for?
Dianne Feinstein……………………………………… 56%
Orly Taitz………………………………………………… 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 34%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 58%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 25%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 50%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If Asian, press 4.
If other, press 5.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 22%
White …………………………………………………….. 58%
African-American …………………………………….. 5%
Asian……………………………………………………… 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
