Raleigh,
N.C. – It may be
hard to remember that Scott Walker, having already faced voters twice in two
years, is still in his first term. And
looking ahead to his bid for re-election next fall, he continues to look
slightly vulnerable on paper, depending on who Democrats throw at him. Voters are split down the middle on Walker’s
job performance, with 48% approving and 49% disapproving, but of six
challengers PPP threw at him in its first 2013 Wisconsin poll, only one tops
him, and barely: former Sen. Russ Feingold.
Feingold
leads Walker, 49-47. But Walker still
has 46-48% of the vote against the other five, and leads them by margins of
four to nine points: Ron Kind (46-42), Peter Barca (48-43), Jon Erpenbach
(48-42), Steve Kagen (48-41), and Mahlon Mitchell (48-39).
Granted,
Feingold is by far the best-known and best-liked option for Democrats. 53% of voters see him favorably, and only 37%
unfavorably. The 11% who cannot express
an opinion on Feingold pales in comparison to the 55% (Kind) to 74% (Mitchell)
who are unsure about the other Democrats.
So the shape of the horse races this far out tracks closely with the
Democrats’ name identification. Thus,
though Walker starts at nearly 50%, a close race could still develop without
Feingold if the eventual Democratic nominee is able to raise enough cash and,
with it, his or her profile. As it
stands now, some of the candidates lead among voters who already are familiar
with both them and the incumbent. But
the fact that Feingold leads by only two points despite his personal image
being significantly superior to that of the governor’s means this will be a
tough race for whoever emerges as the challenger.
Looking even
further ahead to freshman Sen. Ron Johnson’s bid for a second term, Feingold
may be best advised to wait for a rematch of his 2010 loss. He has an early 52-42 lead over his successor.
“Feingold
would be the best Democratic hope for taking on Scott Walker next year,” said
Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But he might have an easier
time waiting until 2016 and running against Ron Johnson again.”
PPP surveyed 1,799 Wisconsin voters from February 21st
to 24th. The margin of error for the sample is +/-2.3%. This
poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Scott Walker’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Peter Barca?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 63%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Erpenbach?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Russ Feingold?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Kagen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Kind?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mahlon Mitchell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Peter
Barca, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 48%
Peter Barca…………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Jon
Erpenbach, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 48%
Jon Erpenbach………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Russ
Feingold, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 47%
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Steve
Kagen, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 48%
Steve Kagen …………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Ron
Kind, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 46%
Ron Kind………………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat
Mahlon Mitchell, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 48%
Mahlon Mitchell……………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q15 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Ron
Johnson’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q16 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Republican Ron Johnson and Democrat Russ
Feingold, who would you vote for?
Ron Johnson…………………………………………… 42%
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q17 Who do you have a higher opinion of: Ron
Johnson or Hillary Clinton?
Ron Johnson…………………………………………… 42%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q18 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%
Q19 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q20 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q21 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 31%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 39%
Q22 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q23 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
