Raleigh, N.C. – Both Russ Feingold and Tommy Thompson have overwhelming leads in named primary matchups for Herb Kohl’s Senate seat, but Thompson’s hold on his frontrunner status is more precarious than Feingold’s on his.
Pitted against seven other possible Democratic entrants, Feingold pulls an astounding 70% of voters’ preferences. The next closest is Rep. Tammy Baldwin’s 12%, with State Sen. Jon Erpenbach, Rep. Ron Kind, former Rep. Steve Kagen, Rep. Gwen Moore, former Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton, and former Dane County executive Kathleen Falk each at between 1% and 5%.
Remove Feingold from consideration, and the race becomes considerably more wide open, but Baldwin would start out with 30% (+18 from where she polls when Feingold is included) to Kagen’s 17% (+14), Kind’s 16% (+12), Erpenbach’s 13% (+8), Moore’s 6% (+4), Falk’s 4% (+3), and Lawton’s 3% (+2). Tuesday’s release showed that Feingold would be by far the Democrats’ best option against any of the Republicans, with Baldwin second most competitive.
Thompson has a much slimmer hold on his party’s support, with 36% to former Rep. Mark Neumann’s 22%, Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen’s 9%, State Assem. Jeff Fitzgerald’s 8%, Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch’s 7%, State Senate GOP leader Scott Fitzgerald’s 5%, and RNC Chairman Reince Priebus’ 4%.
Thompson’s biggest problem, however, is that if his opposition is not divided, he will be in bigger trouble. Only 46% say they prefer Thompson to be the nominee overall, while 45% want it to be someone else. The most conservative voters actually prefer the generic other candidate, 46-42. Thompson’s position on health care reform could give fuel to a conservative alternative if voters coalesce around one.
PPP surveyed 783 usual Wisconsin Democratic primary voters, with a +/-3.5% margin of error, and 666 usual Republican primary voters, with a +/-3.8% margin of error, from May 19th to 22nd. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Wisconsin Democratic Survey Results:
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Russ Feingold?
Favorable ………….. 86%
Unfavorable……….. 7%
Not sure ……………. 7%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tammy Baldwin?
Favorable ………….. 48%
Unfavorable……….. 12%
Not sure ……………. 41%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Kagen?
Favorable ………….. 22%
Unfavorable……….. 15%
Not sure ……………. 63%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Kind?
Favorable ………….. 32%
Unfavorable……….. 11%
Not sure ……………. 57%
Q5 Given the choices of Tammy Baldwin, Jon
Erpenbach, Russ Feingold, Steve Kagen,
Kathleen Falk, Ron Kind, Barbara Lawton, and
Gwen Moore who would you most like to see
as the Democratic candidate for Senate next
year?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 12%
Jon Erpenbach………………………………………… 5%
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 70%
Steve Kagen …………………………………………… 3%
Kathleen Falk………………………………………….. 1%
Ron Kind………………………………………………… 4%
Barbara Lawton ………………………………………. 1%
Gwen Moore …………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 3%
Q6 If Russ Feingold didn’t run and the choices
were just Tammy Baldwin, Jon Erpenbach,
Steve Kagen, Kathleen Falk, Ron Kind,
Barbara Lawton, and Gwen Moore who would
you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for Senate next year?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 30%
Jon Erpenbach………………………………………… 13%
Steve Kagen …………………………………………… 17%
Kathleen Falk………………………………………….. 4%
Ron Kind………………………………………………… 16%
Barbara Lawton ………………………………………. 3%
Gwen Moore …………………………………………… 6%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 12%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 37%
Moderate………………………………………………… 37%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 6%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 2%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 63%
Man……………………………………………………….. 37%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%
Wisconsin Republican Survey Results:
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 28%
Unfavorable……….. 49%
Not sure ……………. 23%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 66%
Unfavorable……….. 28%
Not sure ……………. 6%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 46%
Unfavorable……….. 32%
Not sure ……………. 22%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable ………….. 80%
Unfavorable……….. 11%
Not sure ……………. 9%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Fitzgerald?
Favorable ………….. 36%
Unfavorable……….. 11%
Not sure ……………. 53%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Neumann?
Favorable ………….. 51%
Unfavorable……….. 11%
Not sure ……………. 39%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable ………….. 69%
Unfavorable……….. 19%
Not sure ……………. 12%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of JB Van Hollen?
Favorable ………….. 47%
Unfavorable……….. 14%
Not sure ……………. 39%
Q9 Given the choices of Michele Bachmann,
Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for President next year?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 11%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 10%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 12%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 14%
Q10 If Sarah Palin didn’t run and the choices were
just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you
most like to see as the nominee?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 14%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 11%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 14%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 15%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 19%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 14%
Q11 Given the choices of Jeff Fitzgerald, Scott
Fitzgerald, Rebecca Kleefisch, Mark Neumann,
Reince Priebus, Tommy Thompson, and JB
Van Hollen who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for Senate next
year?
Jeff Fitzgerald …………………………………………. 8%
Scott Fitzgerald……………………………………….. 5%
Rebecca Kleefisch …………………………………… 7%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 22%
Reince Priebus ……………………………………….. 4%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 36%
JB Van Hollen …………………………………………. 9%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q12 Generally speaking would you like the
Republican Senate candidate next year to be
Tommy Thompson or would you rather it was
someone else?
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 46%
Someone else…………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 42%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 42%
Man……………………………………………………….. 58%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
