Raleigh, N.C. – Despite being upset by first-time candidate Ron Johnson last fall, Russ Feingold is poised for a strong comeback to electoral politics in Wisconsin’s other Senate seat, if he chooses to run. With Herb Kohl’s recent retirement announcement, a number of candidates on both sides are considering bids in what could be one of the hottest Senate races in the country, and a tougher one for Democrats to hold than had Kohl run for another term. But while Democrats have a slight upper hand in the early going, no matter their candidate, their strongest choice would be Feingold, particularly against the most well-known Republican, former Governor Tommy Thompson.
In February, Kohl was leading any of the Republicans PPP tested against him by seven to 15 points, and in December, led Thompson by nine. Now Thompson tops Rep. Tammy Baldwin by one and former Rep. Steve Kagen by three, and ties Rep. Ron Kind. But Feingold puts him away by ten points, 52-42. Feingold is better liked than Thompson by independents and has better numbers within his own party, so he wins with independents, 49-40, and earns 91% of Democrats’ votes and loses only 5% to Thompson, while taking 8% of Republicans and keeping Thompson at 87%.
Feingold and Thompson are the heavy-hitters at the outset of this formative open-seat race, both known by well over 80% of voters, better than the 57% who have an opinion of Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen, 53% of former Rep. Mark Neumann, Assemblyman Jeff Fitzgerald, and Baldwin, 40% of Kind, and 37% of Kagen.
“Russ Feingold’s going to start out as a solid favorite if he wants to go back to the Senate,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “His loss last year had less to do with him than the national political climate and because of Scott Walker’s unpopularity things have shifted back toward the Democrats more quickly in Wisconsin than most other places.”
PPP surveyed 1,636 Wisconsin voters from May 19th to 22nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Russ Feingold?
Favorable ………….. 51%
Unfavorable……….. 38%
Not sure ……………. 11%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tammy Baldwin?
Favorable ………….. 27%
Unfavorable……….. 25%
Not sure ……………. 47%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Fitzgerald?
Favorable ………….. 19%
Unfavorable……….. 34%
Not sure ……………. 47%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Kagen?
Favorable ………….. 14%
Unfavorable……….. 23%
Not sure ……………. 63%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Kind?
Favorable ………….. 22%
Unfavorable……….. 18%
Not sure ……………. 60%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Neumann?
Favorable ………….. 27%
Unfavorable……….. 26%
Not sure ……………. 47%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable ………….. 42%
Unfavorable……….. 42%
Not sure ……………. 16%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of JB Van Hollen?
Favorable ………….. 25%
Unfavorable……….. 32%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Jeff
Fitzgerald, who would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 48%
Jeff Fitzgerald …………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican
Mark Neumann, who would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 46%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican
Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 44%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican JB
Van Hollen, who would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 46%
JB Van Hollen …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Russ Feingold and Republican Jeff
Fitzgerald, who would you vote for?
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 54%
Jeff Fitzgerald …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q14 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Russ Feingold and Republican Mark
Neumann, who would you vote for?
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 53%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q15 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Russ Feingold and Republican
Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for?
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 52%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q16 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Russ Feingold and Republican JB
Van Hollen, who would you vote for?
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 53%
JB Van Hollen …………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q17 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Ron Kind and Republican Jeff
Fitzgerald, who would you vote for?
Ron Kind………………………………………………… 45%
Jeff Fitzgerald …………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q18 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Ron Kind and Republican Mark
Neumann, who would you vote for?
Ron Kind………………………………………………… 44%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q19 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Ron Kind and Republican Tommy
Thompson, who would you vote for?
Ron Kind………………………………………………… 44%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q20 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Ron Kind and Republican JB Van
Hollen, who would you vote for?
Ron Kind………………………………………………… 44%
JB Van Hollen …………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q21 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Steve Kagen and Republican Jeff
Fitzgerald, who would you vote for?
Steve Kagen …………………………………………… 43%
Jeff Fitzgerald …………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q22 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Steve Kagen and Republican Mark
Neumann, who would you vote for?
Steve Kagen …………………………………………… 42%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q23 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Steve Kagen and Republican
Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for?
Steve Kagen …………………………………………… 42%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q24 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Steve Kagen and Republican JB Van
Hollen, who would you vote for?
Steve Kagen …………………………………………… 43%
JB Van Hollen …………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q25 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q26 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q27 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q28 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q29 If you are white, press 1. If something else,
press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q30 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
