Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Iowa Senate poll continues to find a tight race with Joni Ernst slightly ahead of Bruce Braley. Ernst is ahead 44/42 when all the third party candidates are included, and 45/43 in a straight head to head. The 45/43 advantage for Ernst is identical to what we found on our last poll of the race in late August.
Even though the horse race numbers haven’t changed much, this is the first time we’ve found Ernst with a better net favorability rating than Braley. Ernst is at -4 with 42% of voters rating her favorably to 46% with a negative opinion, numbers that are up from a -10 spread at 36/46 in August. Meanwhile Braley’s numbers continue their slow decline- he has a -7 rating with 37% rating him favorably and 44% holding an unfavorable opinion, down from -4 at 37/41 last month. Braley’s favorability has dropped a net 17 points from where it was when we first polled a Braley/Ernst match up in July of 2013 and he was at +10 (34/24).
Both candidates have a pretty good lock on their party base. Only 5% of Democrats are crossing over to support Ernst, and just 8% of Republicans are crossing over to support Braley. The key for Ernst is with independent voters- she has a 45/35 advantage with them.
“The Iowa Senate race continues to be a toss up,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the overall trend lines since we first began polling this race have certainly been more to Ernst’s advantage.”
The Governor’s race in Iowa does not appear to be making any move towards being competitive. Terry Branstad leads Jack Hatch 50/36 with the full field of candidates and 52/38 in a straight head to head. Branstad is up 20 points with independents at 51/31, and is winning over 17% of the Democratic vote while losing just 6% of Republicans. The horse race numbers pretty closely track with Branstad’s approval numbers at 53/38. Feelings about Hatch are divided three ways with about a third rating him favorably, a third unfavorably, and a third having no opinion either way.
PPP surveyed 1,192 likely voters from September 25th-28th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.8%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Terry Branstad’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 53%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Hatch?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q4 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Terry Branstad, Democrat Jack Hatch, New
Independent Party candidate Jim Hennager,
Libertarian Party candidate Lee Deakins Hieb,
and Iowa Party candidate Jonathan Narcisse. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 50%
Jack Hatch……………………………………………… 36%
Jim Hennager …………………………………………. 3%
Lee Deakins Hieb ……………………………………. 2%
Jonathan Narcisse …………………………………… 1%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 Combined horse race, with third-party
supporters asked if they lean Branstad or
Hatch
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 52%
Jack Hatch……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Braley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joni Ernst?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat
Bruce Braley, Republican Joni Ernst,
Libertarian Douglas Butzier, Bob Quast, Ruth
Smith, and independent Rick Stewart. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 42%
Joni Ernst……………………………………………….. 44%
Douglas Butzier……………………………………….. 2%
Bob Quast………………………………………………. 1%
Ruth Smith……………………………………………… 0%
Rick Stewart……………………………………………. 1%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 Combined horse race, with third-party
supporters asked if they lean Braley or Ernst
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 43%
Joni Ernst……………………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Democrat Brad Anderson, Republican Paul
Pate, New Independent Party candidate
Spencer Highland, and Libertarian Jake Porter.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Brad Anderson………………………………………… 33%
Paul Pate ……………………………………………….. 36%
Spencer Highland ……………………………………. 3%
Jake Porter …………………………………………….. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q11 The candidates for Auditor of State are
Democrat Jonathan Neiderbach and
Republican Mary Mosiman. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Jonathan Neiderbach……………………………….. 35%
Mary Mosiman ………………………………………… 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q12 The candidates for Treasurer of State are
Democrat Michael Fitzgerald, Republican Sam
Clovis, and Libertarian Keith Laube. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Michael Fitzgerald……………………………………. 47%
Sam Clovis……………………………………………… 35%
Keith Laube…………………………………………….. 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q13 The candidates for Secretary of Agriculture are
Democrat Sherrie Taha, Republican Bill
Northey, and New Independent Party
candidate Levi Benning. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Sherrie Taha …………………………………………… 29%
Bill Northey …………………………………………….. 49%
Levi Benning…………………………………………… 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q14 The candidates for Attorney General are
Democrat Tom Miller and Republican Adam
Gregg. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Tom Miller ………………………………………………. 53%
Adam Gregg …………………………………………… 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q15 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Charles Grassley’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 57%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Vilsack?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q17 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Republican Charles Grassley and Democrat
Tom Vilsack, who would you vote for?
Charles Grassley …………………………………….. 51%
Tom Vilsack…………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q18 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tom
Harkin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q19 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q20 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 43%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q21 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 45%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q22 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 47%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q23 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q24 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 47%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q25 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 6%
Q26 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q27 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q28 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 29%
Q29 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q30 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
Q31 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
