Raleigh, N.C. – Despite personal scandal and a throw-out-the-bums mood in his party base, Senator John Ensign remains relatively popular with Nevada Republicans, and even against two potential, well-liked 2012 primary opponents, he currently prevails.
Ensign has a 64-23 job approval rating with the likely 2010 voters who say they usually vote in Republican primaries in the Silver State. That’s even stronger among the two-thirds who call themselves conservative—71-16—a sign he may buck the trend that swept Robert Bennett, Mike Castle, and Lisa Murkowski off the GOP ballot line in 2010.
If pitted head-to-head in less than two years against Congressman Dean Heller, Ensign would come out on top, but only by a 45-37 margin.
Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki would have a much tougher road to climb if Heller declined a challenge to Ensign, however. He trails 27-55 to the incumbent senator.
That Heller does 20 points better than Krolicki in the primary matchups corresponds with Heller’s 10-points-higher name recognition. Both men are popular, and neither as well-known as Ensign, but Heller posts a 56-8 personal favorability mark to Krolicki’s 45-9. The difference comes almost entirely among conservatives, who give Krolicki a 47-7 grade, similar to his overall figure. But they like Heller by a 62-5 margin.
Heller is better liked than Ensign overall because of the 30% who claim to be moderate driving up Ensign’s disapproval level. They give Heller a 44-13, but while 49% approve of Ensign’s job performance, 40% disapprove.
“There’s good news and bad news for John Ensign in these numbers,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The good news is that his approval numbers with Republicans are relatively strong and he leads a couple well liked opponents. The bad news is that he’s under 50% against Heller- the big question for Heller then becomes whether it’s worth giving up a safe House seat for a Senate bid that’s far from a sure thing.”
PPP surveyed 400 Nevada Republican primary voters from October 7th to 9th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
Ensign’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 64%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dean Heller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Krolicki?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q4 If the Republican candidates for Senate in
2012 were John Ensign and Dean Heller, who
would you vote for?
John Ensign……………………………………………. 45%
Dean Heller…………………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for Senate in
2012 were John Ensign and Brian Krolicki, who
would you vote for?
John Ensign……………………………………………. 55%
Brian Krolicki…………………………………………… 27%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Conservative…………………………………………… 66%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q8 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 9%
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
African-American …………………………………….. 3%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
