Raleigh, N.C. – Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren leads Republican Scott Brown by 5 points, 46-41, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. Warren has increased her lead from 46-44 the last time PPP polled Massachusettes in September 2011. Scott Brown still enjoys almost unanimous support from Republicans, winning their share of the vote 89-3. Brown even takes a fair share of Democratic voters, taking 17% of them to Warren’s 72%, and he also wins independent voters by 12 points, 48-36. The difference is that in his 2010 victory Brown won independent voters by 32 points.
Voters are split down the middle on whether Scott Brown has been “an independent voice for Massachusetts” or “a partisan voice for the national Republican Party”, with 41% of voters picking each description. Independent voters see Brown as an “independent voice” by a 47-34 margin. The proportion of voters who see Brown as an independent voice for Massachusetts has gone down since last September – back then voters say him as more independent than partisan by a 47-41 margin. Warren’s favorability rating sits at 46% favorable and 33% unfavorable.
Voters marginally approve of Scott Brown’s job performance, with 45% approving and 42% disapproving, but he’s below the magical 50% approval rating – historically a danger sign for incumbent candidates facing strong challengers.
“Scott Brown’s still strong with independents, but not nearly as strong as he was in 2010,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Elizabeth Warren’s doing 20 points better with those voters than Martha Coakley did, and that’s why she has a small early lead in this race.”
Massachusetts voters say they have a much more favorable than unfavorable impression of Harvard University, at 57% favorable and 19% unfavorable.
PPP surveyed 936 Massachusetts voters from March 16th – 18th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Scott
Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ellizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q3 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Republican Scott Brown and Democrat
Elizabeth Warren, who would you vote for?
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 41%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q4 Do you think that Scott Brown is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 11%
Too conservative……………………………………… 35%
About right ……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 Do you think that Elizabeth Warren is too
liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 33%
Too conservative……………………………………… 6%
About right ……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 Do you think the Republican Party in general is
too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 12%
Too conservative……………………………………… 54%
About right ……………………………………………… 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 Do you think the Democratic Party in general is
too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 41%
Too conservative……………………………………… 12%
About right ……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q8 Do you think Scott Brown has been more an
independent voice for Massachusetts or a
partisan voice for the national Republican
Party?
An independent voice for Massachusetts ……. 41%
A partisan voice for the national Republican
Party ………………………………………………………41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Harvard University?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 32%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 11%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 27%
Moderate………………………………………………… 36%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 5%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 14%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 45%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
Other……………………………………………………… 13%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 13%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
