Raleigh, N.C. – Claire McCaskill was involved in incredibly close races for Governor in 2004 and Senator in 2006 from Missouri and it looks like she’s in for another one as she seeks reelection to the Senate in 2012. McCaskill leads Sarah Steelman by 1 point in a hypothetical match up and trails Jim Talent and Peter Kinder each by 2 points in them, all results well within the poll’s margin of error.
Voters in Missouri are pretty evenly divided in their feelings about McCaskill’s job performance during her first term. 43% approve of the job she’s doing, while 44% disapprove. There’s near complete polarization along party lines in her reviews- 77% of Democrats give her good marks, while 77% of Republicans think she’s doing a poor job. Independents lean slightly in her favor by a 43/40 margin.
Voters have mixed reactions to the potential GOP challengers tested in the poll as well. For Steelman and Kinder the main response is ambivalence. 59% of voters don’t know enough about Steelman to have formed an opinion and 54% say the same about Kinder. Those who do have feelings about them are slightly positive. Kinder’s favorability is 23/22 and Steelman’s is 22/19.
Perhaps more surprising is how many voters don’t have an opinion about Talent even after he ran statewide 3 times in 4 election cycles at one point in the last decade. 32% of voters now say they don’t know enough about Talent to rate him either positively or negatively. His reviews break down 36% favorable and 32% unfavorable with those who do have an opinion.
At this early stage it looks like the 2012 Missouri Senate race will be very much a base election. McCaskill gets only 6-8% among Republican voters in each of the match ups, and the Republicans only get 5-8% of Democrats in each of them.
“Claire McCaskill’s accustomed to fighting close races and she may have to do it again,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Missouri’s lopsided contest this year is likely to be a blip on the radar of the state’s overall trend toward close races.”
PPP surveyed 515 Missouri voters from November 29th to December 1st. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Claire McCaskill’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kit
Bond’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Peter Kinder?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Steelman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Talent?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican
Peter Kinder, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 44%
Peter Kinder……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican
Sarah Steelman, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 45%
Sarah Steelman ………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican Jim
Talent, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 45%
Jim Talent ………………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Conservative…………………………………………… 44%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 34%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%