Raleigh, N.C. – Republicans made huge gains in the New Hampshire last fall, picking up a whopping 124 State House seats and 9 Senate seats to wrest control of both houses of the legislature from the Democrats. But if voters could go to the polls now, they would flip a lot of those seats, if not the majority, right back. Statewide, 49% of New Hampshire voters would select the Democratic candidate in their district, with 41% preferring the Republican. Democrats and Republicans unsurprisingly stick mostly with their respective parties, but the huge plurality of the electorate that identifies with neither party (36%) decide the issue, siding with Democrats 46-34. Last fall, independents swung heavily the GOP’s way, but in many states, they are moving back toward Democrats now, according to recent PPP polls.
New Hampshire is one of the only states in the union to have full same-sex marriage. A 44% plurality currently believe gay couples should have full marriage rights, as they do now, with another 35% supporting the previous status quo, civil unions. Only 19% are against any legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship. Two-thirds of Democrats and 47% of independents are for full marriage rights, but a 47% plurality of Republicans also supports civil unions.
In a sign of how big of a shift there was in turnout toward the GOP last fall, senior Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s approval rating has drastically improved from a 41-46 spread in late October to 50-36 now. The independents who turned out in November were particularly conservative and in an anti-Democratic mood. They disapproved 42-44 of Shaheen then, but the independents in this electorate approve 50-31.
Newly elected Kelly Ayotte starts out with a bit of a honeymoon, but is not as popular as her predecessor, Judd Gregg. Gregg’s net +23 approval margin just before last fall’s election is almost twice Ayotte’s +12 (46-34) now. Only 57% of Democrats disapprove of her performance. Independents also give her the benefit of the doubt, 41-29.
Frank Guinta defeated Carol Shea-Porter for the 1st Congressional seat by 12 points last year, but his district’s voters now have an unfavorable opinion of him by a 34-41 margin. Similarly, Charlie Bass retook his seat narrowly, but he posts only a 31-49 spread.
PPP surveyed 769 New Hampshire voters from March 31st to April 3rd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Jeanne Shaheen’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kelly
Ayotte’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Bass? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 25%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Frank Guinta? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 33%
Q5 If there was an election today for the state
legislature would you be more likely to vote for
Democratic or Republican candidates? If
Democrats, press 1. If Republicans, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Democrats ……………………………………………… 49%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 41%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship. If
you think gay couples should be allowed to
legally marry, press 1. If you think gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, press 2. If you think there should
be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s
relationship, press 3. If you’re not sure, press
4.
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..44%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not legally marry ……………………….35%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………19%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 2%
Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama,
press 2. If someone else or you don’t
remember, press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 42%
Obama…………………………………………………… 51%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 8%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 36%
Q11 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q13 Congressional District
1st…………………………………………………………. 41%
2nd………………………………………………………… 59%
