Raleigh, N.C. – The contests for Senate and Governor in California have tightened over the final week of the campaign, although the Democratic candidates still retain the lead in both races. Barbara Boxer is up 50-46 on Carly Fiorina for the Senate, while Jerry Brown is ahead of Meg Whitman by a 51-46 margin for Governor.
Boxer leads despite posting atrocious approval numbers in this final poll at 40% of voters happy with her job performance and 50% displeased. Fortunately for her Californians aren’t real enamored with Fiorina either- only 42% rate her favorably to 44% with a negative opinion. Boxer’s position right now might be a lot more perilous if she had drawn a stronger opponent.
The formula for winning as a Republican in a deep blue state is to get about 20% of the Democratic vote to cross over and to rack up a large advantage with independents. Fiorina is winning only 12% of Democrats and actually trails Boxer by a 50-46 margin with independents. She’ll have to outperform her poll numbers on both of those measures Tuesday to have a chance at winning.
The story is pretty similar in the race for Governor. Meg Whitman is winning only 13% of the Democratic vote and trails Jerry Brown by the same 50-46 margin with independents that Fiorina has against Boxer. Despite her profligate spending California voters never warmed up to Whitman- 50% of them express an unfavorable opinion about her to just 38% who say that they like her.
Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana in California, appears to be headed for defeat. 51% of voters say they will oppose it to only 44% who plan to cast a yes vote. There appeared to be solid support for this measure over the summer but its popularity has faded as the election has moved closer.
“The California races have tightened over the final week of the campaign but Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown are both over the magic 50% line,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The odds of an upset in one or both of these races are better than they were a week ago but remain pretty small.”
PPP surveyed 882 likely California voters from October 29th to 31st. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Republican
Carly Fiorina and Democrat Barbara Boxer. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Carly Fiorina …………………………………………… 46%
Barbara Boxer…………………………………………. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Barbara Boxer’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Carly Fiorina?
Favorable ………….. 42%
Unfavorable……….. 44%
Not sure ……………. 15%
Q4 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Meg Whitman and Democrat Jerry Brown. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Meg Whitman………………………………………….. 46%
Jerry Brown…………………………………………….. 51%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jerry Brown?
Favorable ………….. 42%
Unfavorable……….. 49%
Not sure ……………. 9%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Meg Whitman?
Favorable ………….. 38%
Unfavorable……….. 50%
Not sure ……………. 12%
Q7 Proposition 19 would legalize marijuana under
California but not federal law. It would permit
local governments to regulate and tax
commerical production, distribution, and sale of
marijuana. Will you vote yes or no on
Proposition 19?
Yes………………………………………………………… 44%
No …………………………………………………………. 51%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Dianne Feinstein’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Arnold Schwarzenegger’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 24%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 67%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q12 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 42%
Conservative…………………………………………… 37%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If Asian, press 4.
If other, press 5.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 23%
White …………………………………………………….. 62%
African-American …………………………………….. 7%
Asian……………………………………………………… 5%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 35%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q17 Have you already cast your ballot for this
year’s election?
Yes………………………………………………………… 42%
No …………………………………………………………. 58%
