Raleigh, N.C. –
It’s more than a year and a half out from the 2014 Massachusetts gubernatorial
election, and the indecision of voters in PPP’s latest look at the contest
reflects that. At least 17% and as much
as 48% of voters are undecided in 21 match-ups PPP tested in this very
unsettled race.
But the general picture is no surprise in this deep blue state: Democrats
have a slight edge unless Scott Brown is the Republican nominee. 53% see Brown favorably and 35% unfavorably,
and he earns 43-49% of the vote, with leads of four to 18 points against the
seven Democrats PPP tested. Yet those
Democrats lead the other two Republicans tested—2010 gubernatorial nominee
Charlie Baker and failed 2012 congressional and 2010 Lt. Gov. candidate Richard
Tisei—in almost all the other head-to-heads.
Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin could be Democrats’ best
offering, at least at this early stage, due to name recognition and
favorability. 37% see him positively and
15% negatively. He is the best-known
Democrat in the poll, with only 49% unsure of their feelings toward him—still a
far cry from Brown’s 11%, but better than Congressman Mike Capuano’s 53%, State
Treasurer Steve Grossman’s and U.S. Attorney Carmen Ortiz’s 66%, Sen. Mo
Cowan’s 72%, and the more than 80% who are not sure about Joe Avellone and Don
Berwick. But Galvin is also by far the
best-liked of the lot. He trails Brown
by only four points (39-43), and leads Baker by six (37-31) and Tisei by 15
(39-24).
By comparison, Grossman trails Brown by 12 (34-46). Capuano lags by 7 (38-45), and Ortiz by 18
(31-49). 44% of Democratic primary
voters are unsure about their preference in a seven-way field, but Capuano edges Galvin 17-13, with the rest bunched between 4% and 6%.
“The Massachusetts Governor’s race is really up in the air,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Other than Scott Brown none of the
candidates are particularly well known, so it’s hard to get much of an early
read on it.”
PPP surveyed 1,539 Massachusetts
voters, including 666 usual Democratic primary voters, on May 1st and 2nd. The margin of error for the overall survey
is +/-2.5%, and +/-3.8% for the Democratic portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political
organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 (Asked of 666 Democratic primary voters)
Given the choices of Joe Avellone, Don
Berwick, Mike Capuano, Mo Cowan, William
Galvin, Steve Grossman, and Carmen Ortiz,
who would you most like to see as the
Democratic candidate for Governor next year?
Joe Avellone …………………………………………… 5%
Don Berwick……………………………………………. 4%
Mike Capuano…………………………………………. 17%
Mo Cowan………………………………………………. 4%
William Galvin …………………………………………. 13%
Steve Grossman ……………………………………… 6%
Carmen Ortiz ………………………………………….. 5%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 44%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Avellone?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Baker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Don Berwick?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q1 (Asked of 666 Democratic primary voters)
Given the choices of Joe Avellone, Don
Berwick, Mike Capuano, Mo Cowan, William
Galvin, Steve Grossman, and Carmen Ortiz,
who would you most like to see as the
Democratic candidate for Governor next year?
Joe Avellone …………………………………………… 5%
Don Berwick……………………………………………. 4%
Mike Capuano…………………………………………. 17%
Mo Cowan………………………………………………. 4%
William Galvin …………………………………………. 13%
Steve Grossman ……………………………………… 6%
Carmen Ortiz ………………………………………….. 5%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 44%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Avellone?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Baker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Don Berwick?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Brown?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Capuano?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mo
Cowan’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .12%
Disapprove…………. .16%
Not sure …………….. .72%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of William Galvin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Grossman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Carmen Ortiz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Richard Tisei?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Joe Avellone and Republican Charlie
Baker, who would you vote for?
Joe Avellone …………………………………………… 24%
Charlie Baker ………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Don Berwick and Republican Charlie
Baker, who would you vote for?
Don Berwick……………………………………………. 25%
Charlie Baker ………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mike Capuano and Republican
Charlie Baker, who would you vote for?
Mike Capuano…………………………………………. 35%
Charlie Baker ………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q15 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mo Cowan and Republican Charlie
Baker, who would you vote for?
Mo Cowan………………………………………………. 26%
Charlie Baker ………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q16 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat William Galvin and Republican
Charlie Baker, who would you vote for?
William Galvin …………………………………………. 37%
Charlie Baker ………………………………………….. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q17 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Steve Grossman and Republican
Charlie Baker, who would you vote for?
Steve Grossman ……………………………………… 32%
Charlie Baker ………………………………………….. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q18 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Carmen Ortiz and Republican
Charlie Baker, who would you vote for?
Carmen Ortiz ………………………………………….. 27%
Charlie Baker ………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q19 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Joe Avellone and Republican Scott
Brown, who would you vote for?
Joe Avellone …………………………………………… 29%
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q20 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Don Berwick and Republican Scott
Brown, who would you vote for?
Don Berwick……………………………………………. 30%
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q21 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mike Capuano and Republican Scott
Brown, who would you vote for?
Mike Capuano…………………………………………. 38%
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q22 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mo Cowan and Republican Scott
Brown, who would you vote for?
Mo Cowan………………………………………………. 31%
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q23 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat William Galvin and Republican Scott
Brown, who would you vote for?
William Galvin …………………………………………. 39%
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q24 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Steve Grossman and Republican
Scott Brown, who would you vote for?
Steve Grossman ……………………………………… 34%
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q25 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Carmen Ortiz and Republican Scott
Brown, who would you vote for?
Carmen Ortiz ………………………………………….. 31%
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q26 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Joe Avellone and Republican
Richard Tisei, who would you vote for?
Joe Avellone …………………………………………… 29%
Richard Tisei…………………………………………… 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q27 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Don Berwick and Republican
Richard Tisei, who would you vote for?
Don Berwick……………………………………………. 28%
Richard Tisei…………………………………………… 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q28 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mike Capuano and Republican
Richard Tisei, who would you vote for?
Mike Capuano…………………………………………. 38%
Richard Tisei…………………………………………… 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q29 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mo Cowan and Republican Richard
Tisei, who would you vote for?
Mo Cowan………………………………………………. 30%
Richard Tisei…………………………………………… 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q30 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat William Galvin and Republican
Richard Tisei, who would you vote for?
William Galvin …………………………………………. 39%
Richard Tisei…………………………………………… 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q31 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Steve Grossman and Republican
Richard Tisei, who would you vote for?
Steve Grossman ……………………………………… 34%
Richard Tisei…………………………………………… 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q32 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Carmen Ortiz and Republican
Richard Tisei, who would you vote for?
Carmen Ortiz ………………………………………….. 29%
Richard Tisei…………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q33 In the last Presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q34 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 20%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 8%
Q35 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q36 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 17%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 42%
Q37 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
Other……………………………………………………… 16%
Q38 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
