Raleigh, N.C. – When Kay Bailey Hutchison kept to her word last week and announced she would not seek re-election next year, it set off a scramble on both sides of the aisle. Republicans are angling for what could be a shoo-in if they get past the primary, while the less optimistic Democrats are at least hoping that in a presidential year, with strong minority turnout and some resources spent by the Obama campaign, they could spring a surprise. At this stage, those hopes appear small. Four potential Republican contenders, three of them unknowns statewide, all post double-digit leads over three possible Democratic aspirants in PPP’s early look at the 2012 Texas Senate race.
Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst tops Rep. Chet Edwards, 50-31; former Comptroller John Sharp, 49-31; and San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, 53-25. Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones bests Edwards, 44-31; Sharp, 44-30; and Castro, 48-27. Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert beats Edwards, 46-30; Sharp, 42-30; and Castro, 48-25. RRC Michael Williams outduels Edwards, 42-31; Sharp, 42-30; and Castro, 45-26.
The results are partly a reflection of name recognition, but more than anything, a function of Texas’ strong 42-31 Republican registration advantage over the Democrats. It is no surprise that Democrats have a ceiling of 31% against any of the Republicans. The variability of the Republicans’ support levels (42-53%) suggests they actually have room to expand their margins toward or even exceeding Dewhurst’s as their profiles grow.
Dewhurst, of whom 38% have no opinion, is by far the best known of the seven candidates, and the rest are unknown to between 54 and 72% of voters. As slim as his chances are, Sharp might currently be the Democrats’ best shot. He is the third best known, and voters are split on him personally, 21-22, while Edwards posts a 16-30 favorability margin, and Castro a dismal 7-28 among those who claim to be aware of him.
“It’s going to take a perfect storm for Democrats to be competitive here,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “A divisive Republican primary leading to a very weak nominee might be their best shot but for now it looks like the GOP ought to keep this seat.”
PPP surveyed 892 Texas voters from January 14th to 16th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Dewhurst?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chet Edwards?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Ames Jones?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Leppert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 63%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Sharp?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Julian Castro?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michael Williams?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican David Dewhurst and Democrat
Chet Edwards, who would you vote for?
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 50%
Chet Edwards …………………………………………. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican David Dewhurst and Democrat
John Sharp, who would you vote for?
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 49%
John Sharp …………………………………………….. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican David Dewhurst and Democrat
Julian Castro, who would you vote for?
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 53%
Julian Castro…………………………………………… 25%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Elizabeth Ames Jones and
Democrat Chet Edwards, who would you vote
for?
Elizabeth Ames Jones………………………………. 44%
Chet Edwards …………………………………………. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Elizabeth Ames Jones and
Democrat John Sharp, who would you vote
for?
Elizabeth Ames Jones………………………………. 44%
John Sharp …………………………………………….. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 26%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Elizabeth Ames Jones and
Democrat Julian Castro, who would you vote
for?
Elizabeth Ames Jones………………………………. 48%
Julian Castro…………………………………………… 27%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q14 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Tom Leppert and Democrat Chet
Edwards, who would you vote for?
Tom Leppert……………………………………………. 46%
Chet Edwards …………………………………………. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q15 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Tom Leppert and Democrat John
Sharp, who would you vote for?
Tom Leppert……………………………………………. 42%
John Sharp …………………………………………….. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q16 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Tom Leppert and Democrat Julian
Castro, who would you vote for?
Tom Leppert……………………………………………. 48%
Julian Castro…………………………………………… 25%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q17 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Michael Williams and Democrat
Chet Edwards, who would you vote for?
Michael Williams ……………………………………… 42%
Chet Edwards …………………………………………. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q18 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Michael Williams and Democrat
John Sharp, who would you vote for?
Michael Williams ……………………………………… 42%
John Sharp …………………………………………….. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q19 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Michael Williams and Democrat
Julian Castro, who would you vote for?
Michael Williams ……………………………………… 45%
Julian Castro…………………………………………… 26%
Undecided………………………………………………. 29%
Q20 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 37%
Conservative…………………………………………… 50%
Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q22 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 31%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q23 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 17%
White …………………………………………………….. 65%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q24 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
