Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s final polls in Massachusetts and Connecticut find that Democrats are
likely to pick up the Senate seat in the former and hold onto the open seat in
the latter. Elizabeth Warren leads Scott Brown 52-46 in the Massachusetts
contest, while Chris Murphy has a 52-43 advantage over Linda McMahon in
Connecticut.
Scott Brown has a 52/36 approval rating. Usually Senators with those kinds
of approval numbers are safe for reelection. But Warren needed to do 2 things
in this campaign: solidify the Democratic vote behind her and reduce Brown’s
advantage with independents. She’s succeeded on both of those fronts. 84% of
Democrats are planning to vote for her, only slightly less than the 88% of
Republicans Brown’s winning. And Warren’s deficit with independents is only 21
points at 59-38. Our final poll of the 2010 Massachusetts Senate special
election found Brown defeating Martha Coakley 64-32 with them so Warren’s
really made up a fair amount of ground on that front.
In Connecticut our final poll finds Chris Murphy with his largest lead all
year at 9 points. He’s increased his advantage by 5 points since two weeks ago
when he was ahead just 48-44. Linda McMahon, already unpopular, has just become
more disliked by voters in the state over the last couple weeks. Only 37% have
a favorable opinion of her to 52% with an unfavorable one.
“In August polling found the Democratic candidates trailing in both of these
New England Senate races,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy
Polling. “But Elizabeth Warren and Chris Murphy have closed strongly and appear
to be in a safe position for victory, which will go a long way toward helping
their party keep its majority.”
Barack Obama leads the Presidential race comfortably in both of these
states, 57/42 in Massachusetts and 55/42 in Connecticut. But both of those
leads are down considerably from his margin of victory in 2008- he’s dropped 11
points from his 26 point win in Massachusetts and 10 points from his 23 point
win in Connecticut.
PPP surveyed 1,089
likely voters in Massachusetts and 1,220 in Connecticut on November 1st
and 2nd. The margin of error for MA is +/-3.0% and for CT it’s +/-2.8%. This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Massachusetts Toplines
Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 The candidates for Senate are Democrat
Elizabeth Warren and Republican Scott Brown.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 52%
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ellizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Scott
Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
Kerry’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q8 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Senate today, would you vote for Democrat
John Kerry or his Republican opponent?
John Kerry ……………………………………………… 54%
Republican opponent ……………………………….. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 6%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 16%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 45%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 82%
Other……………………………………………………… 18%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Connecticut Toplines
Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 The candidates for Senate are Democrat Chris
Murphy and Republican Linda McMahon. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Chris Murphy ………………………………………….. 52%
Linda McMahon ………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Murphy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Linda McMahon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Dan Malloy’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .46%
Disapprove…………. .38%
Not sure …………….. .17%
Q8 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Governor today, would you vote for Democrat
Dan Malloy or his Republican opponent?
Dan Malloy…………. .48%
Republican
opponent……………..37%
Not sure …………….. .15%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 36%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 10%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 26%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 34%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 82%
Other……………………………………………………… 18%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
