Raleigh, N.C. – Herb Kohl won more than two-thirds of the vote in 2006 against a nominal opponent, but even against a big-name challenger in 2012, he is still in strong shape—that is, if he chooses to run for re-election in the first place. If he instead decides to retire at age 77 after four terms, recently defeated Russ Feingold would do just as well if he makes a bid for Wisconsin’s other Senate seat.
Congressman Paul Ryan, who will soon have a House committee chairmanship he may be reticent to lose, would give Kohl and Feingold their strongest challenges, losing to Kohl, 42-48, and to Feingold, 43-50. Former Governor Tommy Thompson, who declined to challenge Feingold in 2010, would lose to each Democrat by a 40-49 margin. And the most likely but least known of the candidates, state Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen, is down 41-52 to Feingold and 38-51 to Kohl.
Independents favor each of the Democrats by at least seven points in each of the matchups, and the Democrats hold more of their base in each contest except when Kohl is pitted against Ryan, in which case they each garner 84% of their respective parties.
This race is unusual in this climate in that none is disliked. Thompson’s 44-43 favorability rating is the worst, followed by Van Hollen’s 32-29, Ryan’s 38-30, and Kohl’s 50-35 job approval rating.
Feingold lost to Ron Johnson by almost five points, but in the entire registered electorate, the loser is better liked than the victor. Feingold has a 50-43 job approval rating, but Johnson’s favorability rating is only 42-39. That compares to Feingold’s 44-48 and Johnson’s 51-35 before the election. The independents who turned out to vote swung decisively to Johnson, but while 39% disapprove of each man now, 54% approve of Feingold’s job performance, while only 39% have a positive opinion of Johnson.
“Russ Feingold’s strong numbers when you get out of the 2010 electorate really show the extent to which last month was about Democrats not showing up,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He would be a formidable alternative if Herb Kohl decides to make his current term his last one.”
PPP surveyed 702 Wisconsin voters from December 10th to 12th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Russ
Feingold’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Herb
Kohl’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of JB Van Hollen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Herb Kohl and Republican JB Van
Hollen, who would you vote for?
Herb Kohl……………………………………………….. 51%
JB Van Hollen …………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Herb Kohl and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Herb Kohl……………………………………………….. 48%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Herb Kohl and Republican Tommy
Thompson, who would you vote for?
Herb Kohl……………………………………………….. 49%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Russ Feingold and Republican JB
Van Hollen, who would you vote for?
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 52%
JB Van Hollen …………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Russ Feingold and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 50%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Russ Feingold and Republican
Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for?
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 49%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 40%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
African-American …………………………………….. 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 5%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%
