Raleigh, N.C. – After their disastrous 2010 election. Democrats are on track to make gains in 2012, now leading the Republicans by the slimmest of margins, 43-42, when voters are asked whether they would vote for a Democratic or a Republican candidate for the House from their district. However, this might not be enough for the Democrats to retake the house, and represents a narrowing from their 46-41 lead in April.
Americans continue to express dissatisfaction with the performance of Congress, giving both parties poor marks. Only 29% approve of Congressional Democrats compared to 60% who disapprove. This spread is even worse for the Republicans at 22-61. Republican Speaker of the House John Boehner also fares poorly, with 27% of voters approving compared to 37% who disapprove.
In a comparison between the Democratic and Republican Congresses, voters give the edge to the Democrats with 30% of the opinion that Republicans are doing a better job compared to 37% who say they are doing a worse job and 31% who feel the two Congresses have been about the same. This sentiment is particularly true among independents of whom 38% feel the Republicans are doing a worse job compared to only 19% who feel they are doing a better job. Voters also have more faith in President Obama than Congressional Republicans to lead the country in the right direction, 49 to 43.
While every year seems to bring a new batch of political sex scandals, Americans don’t think this reflects on all politicians. Only 23% of voters think that most male politicians are sexually immoral, while 56% don’t think so. Though Anthony Weiner’s sex scandal dominates the news, in a look back on sex scandals past, 38% of voters feel John Edwards is the worst person compared to 21% for Bill Clinton, 8% for Larry Craig, 5% for Mark Foley, and only 3% for Anthony Weiner, John Ensign, Mark Sanford, and Eliot Spitzer. Democrats disfavor Edwards over Clinton by a wide 41 to 11 margin, while Republicans do so only 35 to 34.
PPP surveyed 520 American voters from June 9th to 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you think that most male politicians are
sexually immoral or not?
They are mostly sexually immoral………………. 23%
They are not……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q2 Which politician caught in a sex scandal do you
think is the worst person: Bill Clinton, Larry
Craig, John Edwards, Mark Foley, John
Ensign, Mark Sanford, Eliot Spitzer, or Anthony
Weiner?
Bill Clinton………………………………………………. 21%
Larry Craig……………………………………………… 8%
John Edwards …………………………………………. 38%
Mark Foley……………………………………………… 5%
John Ensign……………………………………………. 3%
Mark Sanford ………………………………………….. 3%
Eliot Spitzer…………………………………………….. 3%
Anthony Weiner ………………………………………. 3%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 On his midnight ride, do you think Paul Revere
was warning the British or not?
He was warning the British ……………………….. 14%
He was not……………………………………………… 67%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 Do you think Sarah Palin’s interpretation of
Paul Revere’s midnight ride is historically
accurate or not?
Her interpretation is historically accurate …….. 14%
It is not …………………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of the job John
Boehner is doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 27%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of the job
Congressional Democrats are doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 29%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of the job
Congressional Republicans are doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 22%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q8 Do you think the Republicans are doing a
better job than the Democrats did while in
charge of the House of Representatives, a
worse job, or about the same?
A better job …………………………………………….. 30%
A worse job …………………………………………….. 37%
About the same……………………………………….. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%
Q9 Do you have more faith in Barack Obama or
Congressional Republicans to lead the country
in the right direction?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Congressional Republicans ………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 If there was an election for Congress today
would you vote for the Democratic or
Republican candidate from your district?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q14 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 9%
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
