Raleigh, N.C. – The special election that will determine control of the Iowa State Senate on Tuesday is close, but it looks like Democrats will probably hold serve. Democrat Liz Mathis leads Republican Cindy Golding 52-46 in our poll taken over the weekend.

The numbers suggest that Mathis is just a stronger candidate than Golding. Voters in the district are split right down the middle, 44/44, on whether they’d rather Democrats or Republicans had control of the State Senate. But Mathis is outrunning those numbers when it comes to how people are planning to vote on Tuesday. The big key for her is that she’s taking 16% of the GOP vote from Golding, while losing only 9% of the Democratic vote. That helps her make up for a 50-45 deficit with independents.

This election has been framed to some extent as a battle over gay marriage, but our poll suggests voters aren’t seeing it that way. They’re planning to vote for Mathis even as 46% of them say gay marriage should be illegal, compared to just 42% who think it should be legal. Although voters in the district may oppose gay marriage, only 11% say that issue is the most important factor guiding their vote compared to 86% who say it’s something else. It’s also worth noting that 66% of voters do support either gay marriage or civil unions with only 30% opposed to all legal recognition for same sex couples.

If this election’s not hinging on gay marriage, then what is making the difference here? Voters may be sending a message to Governor Terry Branstad. His approval rating in the district is only 39% with 42% disapproving of him. This special election is seen in some quarters as the product of a power grab by Branstad and if Mathis wins it could be indicative of an electorate that doesn’t want to enhance his power.

“This race is still close enough that it could go either way on Tuesday,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it looks like Democrats will probably hold onto control of the Iowa State Senate and if that is the case it will be a reflection of dissatisfaction with Governor Branstad.”

PPP surveyed 878 likely voters from November 4th to 6th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 The candidates for State Senate are
Republican Cindy Golding and Democrat Liz
Mathis. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Republican Cindy Golding ………………………… 46%
Democrat Liz Mathis ………………………………… 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Terry Branstad’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 39%
Disapprove………… 42%
Not sure ……………. 18%

Q3 Generally speaking, would you prefer that
Democrats or Republicans had control of the
Iowa State Senate?
Democrats…………. 44%
Republicans ………. 44%
Not sure ……………. 12%

Q4 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 42%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q5 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..38%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………28%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q6 Is the gay marriage issue the most important
factor influencing your vote or not?
Gay marriage is the most important factor …… 11%
It is not …………………………………………………… 86%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q9 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%

Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%